Friday, December 27, 2013

SANTA LOVES THE STOCK MARKET - DOW UP $257.27 FOR THE WEEK!

                                                          "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 19
If you have 5 year, 10 year, 30 year bonds in your portfolio - good luck in 2014!!! Interest rates are going to creep higher throughout 2014 and into 2015. If bonds are in your portfolio - you will lose money!! The only place to put your money in 2014 is in the US stock market! Will the market have down days or down weeks in 2014? - yes. So what - stay the course! Can any of you viewers tell me where you could have made 26% to 32% for the year other than the US stock market? Let's look at a scenario I can envision in 2014 - interest rates start to creep up slowly and bond holders start losing money in their bond holdings - where do you think that money will go into? Answer the US stock market! Do you have any idea how many trillions of dollars are invested in bonds? Let's just say 10% comes out of bonds and into the stock market - we could have a repeat of 2013!
                                                         "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Bear with me for awhile - because I hear people coming on TV saying investors beware - it's 1929 all over again!! Really - These idiots have never investigated why the 1929 crash happened - it's easy to learn go on Google and investigate for yourself. Did you know that from 1927 up till 1929 favored stock investing customers only had to put up 10% and the rest would only put up 20% to buy stocks - maybe it's me - but that sounds very familiar - "you can buy a house with no money down and we will give you 125% of the value of the house you want to purchase" - REALLY! When the market in 1929 started to go down - margin calls forced the owners of stock to sell - no wonder the market crashed!! I find it interesting that Washington politicians never seem to learn from history - it's amazing to me that this country has survived despite Washington! It just shows you that the CEO's of the American companies are smarter than politicians!!
For the most part American companies are lean and mean, and are waiting for a go sign from Washington before they unleash what could be the greatest American expansion in our history!!!!
                                                           "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Sorry for the rant! Now let's look at this weeks action.
DOW for the week up $257.27 or up 1.59%
My holdings
AIG for the week up 0.15 cents or up 0.29%
C     for the week up 0.05 cents or up 0.10%
ABBV for the week down 0.04 cents or down 0.08%
ABT for the week up 0.53 cents or up 1.40%
DIS for the week up $1.95 or up 2.69%
NKE for the week up 0.82 cents or up 1.06%
JCI which I want to buy on a scale down basis starting @ $50.23 down to $48.95 never got there this week- the low was $50.51.
SD which I want to buy on a scale down basis starting @ $5.75 down to $5.51 never got there this week - the low was $5.82
Stocks I sold last Friday because I do not believe their price will appreciate very much in 2014 - even though they do have good dividends - but here is the problem - when interest rates start to go up - those dividends will not look as appealing!
Those stocks were
T, MO, BIP, CLMT, MFA.
For people that have over one million dollars in their portfolio - check in on my blog on Tuesday December 31st - I will show you how you should invest at least 10% in a managed commodity fund - tune in!
Also, I will have 5 stocks for 2014 - tune in!
                                                        "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
If you have questions e-mail me.
lendwelle@hotmail.com   

Friday, December 20, 2013

SANTA CLAUSE HAS JUST VISITED YOUR PORTFOLIO!!!

                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" VOL. - 18
The DOW for the week was up $465.78 or up 2.96%!!!! Closed at 16,221.14!!!! I did not think the FED would taper - but tapering $10 Billion a month is a drop in the bucket!!! - However, I loved their outlook on the American economy! Let's face it, the FED sees economic numbers long before we do! I have to say they got it right! So let's try to figure out why the market exploded to the upside after the FED announcement. It wasn't the small taper number but I believe it was a combination of the taper and their economic forecast  that made the DOW rise almost 300 points after the announcement! We all have to realize one important fact about the great minds this country has -out of our 300 million population! Let's be honest here, population wise this country is small compared to the rest of the world! So why does this great country of ours - The great USA, the greatest country GOD ever created, have people that create ideas that become products, that everyone on the planet has to have? It's called FREEDOM! Freedom to think, freedom to imagine, freedom to execute ideas into real products! This market has a long way to go to the upside!!!!!!!!!
                                                 "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I was watching Bloomberg and they showed a segment where Blackrock was buying 1,500 foreclosed houses in the Atlanta area - they mentioned 2 other companies going into Florida and California buying thousands of foreclosed homes - hiring people to clean them up so they can rent them out - It's not only a new business but think about this- it's just a matter of time existing homes will be in very short supply - good news for existing home owners, because their homes will start to appreciate in price for years to come!
Now lets look at the stocks I own for my wife and my son, who are about the same age (that's another story) and are about 20 years away from retirement.
AIG - which I bought @ $48.12 - it has a book value of $67 a share and is trading at 75% of it's book value - most insurance companies are trading between 90% to 110% of their book value - Look for a big increase in it's dividend payout, coming soon!
AIG - for the week up $1.30 or up 2.61%
C - which I bought @ $51.03 - for the week was up $1.24 or up 2.43%
ABBV - which they acquired on the ABT stock spinoff over 14 months ago was up 0.22 cents or up 0.42%
for the week.
ABT - for the week up $1.44 or up 3.96%
DIS - for the week up $2.78 or up 3.99%
NKE - for the week up 0.94 cents or up 1.23%
Now both my wife and my son's account is up 31.237% for the year.
However, I've been thinking about what to invest in- in 2014 and to rearrange their portfolio's!
This is what I did on the close today.
I sold T, MO, BIP, CLMT, MFA, Why you ask? I see no future for these stocks in 2014 - Don't get wrong they have great dividends, but I believe there are stocks out there that need to be look at for large capital gains in 2014!
The stocks I'm looking to buy are
JCI  - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link - they are citing possible spin-offs of all or part of it's automotive business, which should release value at it's current price. I'm a buyer on a scale down starting @$50.23 down to $48.95.
SD - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Lee Cooperman, who thinks this stock is a double in 2014!
I'm a buyer starting at $5.75 on a scale down basis down to $5.51.
I have more stocks for 2014 - You'll have to wait till next time!
                                                   "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"

Thank You,
Len Dwelle
e-mail
lendwelle@hotmail.com
  

Saturday, December 14, 2013

LAST WEEK THE DOW WAS UP 198.69 - THIS WEEK DOWN 264.84

                                            "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 18
Let's see if we can figure this market out and more importantly let's make an educated prediction of the markets next direction. So what happened this week? More talk of taper from the FED in next week's meeting. Remember taper is no where close to FED tightening! The economic numbers that came out last week were a mixed bag - some good - some were just alright - the unemployment numbers I thought were very disappointing! That last number in my opinion is the number that will prevent the FED next week from tapering I still believe that the taper will not begin until March, when Janet Yellen takes the helm as the New FED Chairman (Chairwoman). I believe it would be a tremendous mistake if the FED tapers next week - I do not see enough growth in the U.S. at this point of a very slow recovery to warrant a taper. I think we need to see more improvement in the U.S. economic numbers for at least one more quarter for it to make sense!
                                             "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
So why was the market down for the week? It was not only the FED tapering fear -Iran pulls out of talks with the six world powers to protest the expansion of U.S. sanctions. More importantly the money managers of funds that have made 28 to 31% so far this year we're taking money off the table leaving them with a lot of cash on hand to reinvest in the market if the FED does nothing this week.
That is why I am still bullish on this market up to year end and also all of January 2014. Here is my reasoning - look at all the companies that are announcing dividend increases. ABT for example increased their dividend 57%! GE increased their dividend 16%. You will see more and more companies increasing their dividends. Let's look at some stocks and how they performed this week.
MU - up 0.77 cents or up 3.45% for the week.
YHOO - up 0.87 cents or up 2.24% for the week.
ABBV - up $1.02 or up 1.99% for the week.
AIG - up 0.18 cents or up 0.36% for the week.
Now let's look at some losers for the week.
T - down .32 cents or down 0.94% for the week
MO - down .36 cents or down 0.96% for the week.
C - down .52 cents or down 1.01% for the week.
BIP - down .43 cents or down 1.14% for the week.
DIS - down .97 cents or down 1.37% for the week.
ABT - down $1.13 or down 3.01% for the week but remember they increased their dividend 57%.
CLMT - down $1.00 or down 3.75% for the week.  This stock on a weekly chart is way oversold!
NKE - down $3.21 or down 4.03% for the week. Remember they have earnings on Thursday.
MFA - down .04 cents or down 0.56% for the week. This stock on a weekly basis is way oversold!
The stock that got killed was,
LULU - down $10.64 or down 15.23%.

Some things to look for,
Sprint is mulling to bid for T-Mobile.
Is it possible that in the future bank stocks will spin-off some of their parts?
I saw the following article that may make that happen!
U.S. authorities agree this week on a final draft of the Volcker Rule, named after former FED chairman Paul Volcker, which seeks to ensure banks cannot make speculative trades that are so large and risky that they threaten individual firms or the wider financial system.
Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) which guarantees deposits at U.S. banks, said if the new rule is successful it could add momentum to his push to split up large banks! I'm a big fan of company spinoffs - they usually become huge winners for investors!
                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle




 

Friday, December 6, 2013

TAPER - OH NO - OH YES SO WHY IS THE DOW UP 198.69?

                                   "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 17
Taper, Taper, Taper - get it through your heads viewers - Tapering does not mean tightening!!!
Let mean repeat that fact - tapering does not mean tightening!!!!!!
This is very important - why - I'll tell you why. The FED is not as such a government agency - they are independent of all the chaos in Washington! We had a great jobs report today - did any body consider the job hiring for the Christmas holidays? Do you think that may have skewed the numbers?
The FED is not stupid - they will not move on just one number - they will wait until the employment numbers come out in January and February of 2014!  Also, like I said in my last blog, they are waiting to see what Washington will come to an agreement on our economic future! What are the odds of that? That's why no taper till March of 2014! Besides that is the same time Janet Yellen takes over as the FED chairwomen! Remember taper does not in anyway mean FED tightening!
For all you people that do not remember past interest rates - I bought my first house in 1972 with 20% down and a 30 year fixed rate of 7and1/2% rate - rates today are chump change - 4 years after I bought my house rates went to 16%!!!!!
So I laugh when everybody gets nervous when the 10 year interest rate is now 2.8%!!! Who cares - its cheap money!!!
So what does Washington need to do to get this country moving to unprecedented prosperity?
Easy - lower corporate tax rates, since the US has the highest corporate tax rates in the world, so we can compete with exports - so the US is not at a disadvantage exporting our products to the world!
However, Washington is too stupid to do something smart!! Silly Me! How about passing legislation to start the Keystone pipeline, so the US could get energy independent and not have to import oil from people that hate our guts!!! Silly Me!
How about giving a tax credit to all truckers with 18 wheelers to change their polluting diesel engines to natural gas engines and creating millions of jobs putting natural gas pumps in all the gas stations in the US. Silly Me!
So why was the DOW up 198.69 today? I was not just the jobs report - it's a combination of events.
Let's start with stock buybacks and dividend increases.
JNJ raises it's dividend along with a buy back program.
Microsoft raises it's dividend by 22% and a $40 billion buy back program.
IBM raises it's dividend by 12% and adds a $5 billion buy back program.
AAPL to buy $100 billion buy back program and raise it's dividend.
This list will increase on a daily basis - and you wonder why I say the market is still going a lot higher!
Now, lets look at 2 stocks that are undergoing year end tax selling
CLMT & MFA - now that selling should soon.
Now lets look at the stocks on my watch list.
Yahoo - this week closed @ $38.86  up $1.88  or 5.08% for the week
MU - this week closed $22.31 up $1.21 or 5.73% for the week
ABBV- this week closed $51.35 up $2.90 or 5.99% for the week
LULU - this week closed $69.84 up .12cents or .17% for the week
Now lets look at some losers
C -this week closed $51.49 down $1.43 or 2,7% for the week - this stock is a great buy at these prices!
ABT - this week closed $37.53 down .66 cents or 1.73% for the week - this stock is a bargain in this area.
BIP - this week closed $37.29 down .65 cents or 1.70% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.
T - this week closed $34.53 down .68 cents or 1.93% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.

                                                  "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Len Dwelle-

Friday, November 29, 2013

FED TAPERING WILL NOT HAPPEN TILL MARCH 2014

                                         "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 17

The FED will not taper till March of 2014. Anyone that thinks the FED will taper earlier is a moron!
Why - the FED knows that the annual GDP number will be at or under 2%. They know the unemployment rate will not approach 6.5% for a very long time. They do not trust Washington to come up with good decisions to move our great country forward economically!
Therefore - no taper till March.
There is so much cash on the sidelines waiting to get into this market - that on any down move in the market will be met with buyers. Thus this market will rally till the end of the year!
                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at the 3 stocks I told you to watch on my last blog.
C - up .51 cents for the week or .97%
Yahoo - up .49 cents for the week or 1.34%
MU - up .91 cents for the week or 4.51%

Now lets look at stocks on my watch list.
T - I believe this stock needs to be bought on a scale down basis starting at $35.10 down to $34.11
ABBV - a spin off of ABT yields 3.30% - any close over $50.20 - this stock will climb to higher levels.
ABT - yields 2.30% - a close over $38.81 - this stock should climb higher.
AIG - a close over it's 52 week high - $53.33 - this stock should go higher.
BIP - yields 4.30% should be bought on a scale down basis starting at $38.21 down to $36.57.
MO - buy on a scale down basis starting at $36.81 down to $34.58.
CLMT - yields 10% - when this stock closes over $31.73 - it needs to be bought.
MFA - yields 26%!!! a close over $7.75 - this stock will climb higher.
LULU - this stock is way oversold on a weekly basis - a close over $70.49 should propel this stock to its 52 week high of $82.53.

                                      "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle

Saturday, November 23, 2013

DON'T FIGHT THE FED!!!

                                            "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 16
   
     This past week I have heard so many fund managers on the business networks warning investors that a big stock market correction is coming soon. I actually heard one of them refer to the 1929 crash. Really! That idiot forgot something about that event! In 1929 people were buying stocks with 10% down!!!! Where was Congress then? Why did they not stop that insane practice? Well, because just like today's politicians, they had know understanding of finance! They we're clueless that it was a recipe for disaster!
     Does this sound familiar? Remember the TV adds starting around 2005 - buy a house - no money down - we will give you 125% of the value of the house you want to purchase! Again, where were our politicians?  Didn't they see the obvious handwriting on the wall? History has a funny way of repeating itself!
      Enough of my rant! Let's concentrate on the future. American companies are sitting on hordes of cash never seen before in our country! That is why in the future you will see more mergers and acquisitions to boost shareholder value. Example - Time-Warner with Comcast. Also you will see more spin-offs, which also are shareholder friendly.
      FED chairman, Ben Bernanke announced this week that short term interest rates will remain low for a very long period of time! This is the green light for the stock market to continue to rally! Another thing I want to mention, you will hear a lot about FED tapering from now to the end of the year. The FED has stated emphatically that FED tapering is in no way any indication of FED tightening! That is missed by all that claim that a FED tapering will cause a big correction in the stock market - those waiting for a correction or even worse selling their stocks anticipating a correction, will miss out on the big surge from now till the end of the year!
                                        "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
          By the way in my earlier blog, I recommended that for every 100 shares of AAPL you owned to sell 1 January 2014 $550 call @ $15 and collect $1,500 which gets credited to your account - That
is called a covered call. Remember every call option represents 100 shares of the underlying stock. So the $15 you collected = $1,500. Then I recommended that you buy that option back @ $7 or $700 - creating a $800 profit for each cover call you sold @ $15 and you still own the stock. Well on 11-20-2013 you would have bought back that option @ $7.
            There are 3 stocks I want you to look at - remember what Jim Cramer of CNBC says "Do Your Homework" before buying any stock!
             MU - David Einhorn's, Greenlight Capital Fund, bought this stock recently even thought its near its 52 week high. Now, just because David bought this stock, it does not mean you should. However, if you want to see why he bought this stock - go to Yahoo finance.com - punch in MU and go to news. I believe his analysis is correct.
                                                   "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
               Yahoo - Yahoo? you say - well its a great way and a cheaper way to own Alibaba, which is the biggest and most popular e-commerce site in China. Yahoo owns 24% stake in Alibaba. That should be floor on any break in Yahoo stock!
                Citigroup - symbol C. C is the only major US bank that is trading below it's tangible book value - $53.75. When C trades over it's double top of $54, this stock could really take off to the upside.
                                                     "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
                 By the way, do not buy Twitter yet - Never buy a stock that does not make a profit! Wait - I'll let you know what price and when to buy - when I see it!
On Friday, GOOG closed down - $2.18
                  APPL   closed down - $1.34
I find that curious with the markets closing at all time highs. Don't get me wrong - I like both of these stocks for the long haul but they are acting as if we can buy them cheaper at some point.
                                                       "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
                                                   

                                                     
                                        

Saturday, November 16, 2013

THIS MARKET IS A SHORTS- NIGHTMARE!!!!!!

                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL - 14
Did you know there are many hedge funds and mutual funds that are under performing the S&P Index by 10%! So what you say! I'll tell you what - they have to catch up with the market before year end or they will lose clients! They only have a month and one half to accomplish this feat. Watch the high beta stocks in the next few weeks that is the only way they can catch up. What is a high beta stock? Let me describe it this way. When the market goes up 10% - the high beta stocks have a tendency to go up 12 to 15%. An example of a high beta stock would be AMZN and AMGN, just to name two. Believe me there are many more.
Pay attention to what the big money is doing. Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway buying $3.5 billion worth of Exxon stock and selling 44% of it's stake in Conoco Phillips.
George Soros selling part of his holdings in GOOG and one of his recent purchases was AMZN.
Bill Ackman's hedge fund acquiring 10% stake in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Kimberly Clark hires Morgan Stanley to spin off their health care unit. These spin offs tend to be big winners in the long run. Examples would be ABT spinning off AABV, MO spinning off PM - both spinoffs huge winners for investors.
Pay attention to AAPL. Carl Icahn owns a large stake in this stock. He wants Bill Cook to increase AAPLE'S dividend and to increase it's buy back program. It has not happened yet - watch Carl sell some of his shares just to some pressure on Mr. Cook. I'm not saying that AAPL will not increase it's dividend or increase it's buy back program in the future - Carl is a very impatient person. I also love AAPLE stock for the long term but the short term could be interesting.
The same goes for GOOG. I love this stock in the long run but do not be surprised if it sells off to around $980 a share only because hedge funds and mutual funds that own this stock may want to take profits so they can get into high beta stocks before year end. "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I have been asked about my sell call on BAC. I owned it between $12.07 down to $11.89. I sold it around $14.12. I took that money and invested it in AIG - I have not lost any ground on this transaction! The reason why the bank stocks have rallied in the past couple of weeks is that the street feels that the yield curve will steepen, which is great for banks. That thinking remains to be seen.
With Janet Yellen to be nominated as the new FED Chairwomen, I do not believe we will see any FED tapering soon! "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I was asked about BA - I love this stock over the next 5 years, however with this contract dispute you hear from the pundits very soon about how they will not be able to keep up demand. So I would start buying this stock on a pullback to around $126 a share.
I was asked about AMGN - same story- I love this stock for the long haul. If this stock gets to $107, I think it should be bought.
I was asked about AMZN - same story - I love this stock. If it pulls back to around $341 to $326, I think it needs to be bought.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/
  

Sunday, November 10, 2013

BUY THE CORRECT STOCKS ON ANY BREAK!!!!!

                         "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" VOL. 13
For those of you that are in bonds or in cash - this is your worst nightmare! You are missing out on the huge stock market rally of all time!
Needless to say that you need to be in the correct stocks for this move, however if you are not participating in this market you will loss out!
My chart work shows me that when not if the DOW closes over 15,800 on two consecutive closes, we will be in for a wild ride to 17,800 by years end!
Now lets talk about tweeter - TWTR - it is not a but yet! I'll let you know when it is.
I'm looking at four stocks.
MO support around $34.41
ABT support around $34.76
T support around $33.95
CINF support around $49.76
WMT earnings coming out on Thursday - expected earnings $1.13 a share.
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Thursday, November 7, 2013

THIS IS NOT A SPRINT- IT'S A MARATHON!!

                                        "IT'S JUST MY OPIONION" - VOL. 13

The Market is not a sprint - it's a marathon! Today because the ECB lowered rates by .25 basis points - idiots are saying the FED will start their tapering ahead of schedule. Are you kidding me! They have stated that they want to see the unemployment rate around 6.5% - that will not happen soon!
What they are not saying is that the FED does not trust Washington and their fiscal policies! That is important and no one is saying that. Oh, the unemployment numbers are going to be bad because of the government waited to the last minute to get the job done! There's another reason for the FED to keep rates down and not tapering. So why did the market go down today? It's not a sprint it's a marathon!
Nothing ever goes straight up - nothing! Let the market settle down or even go downward for 4 to 5 days. However, my weekly chart work says we are going higher in the DOW.
Obviously, money sold this stock market today and accumulated a lot of cash. This cash is on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market,
When will they get back in?
I have a very unusual answer.
The answer is GOOG - I know this sounds crazy but listen up. GOOG was trading around $880 before its last earnings - now as a chartist it left a huge gap when it went up and went over $1050.
When that gap is filled around $880 a share - this market will bottom!!
Just remember there is a lot of cash on the sidelines - this money is looking for an entry point.
I just gave it to you - now lets see if I'm right.
I was right back in November in 2012 telling everyone that the DOW would achieve 15,700!
We shall see.
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

DO NOT BUY TWITTER ON TODAY'S OPENING! WAIT!

                                          "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 12

Well, Well, Well - every continent is trying to force their currency down. The ECB just lowered their rates by a .25 points! Japan is keeping their rate down and obviously the US is keeping her rates down. Why? We are all competing for export advantage by keeping our currencies down. Markets around the world now have a free pass to the upside! When money is cheap - markets go up!
Now, please do not buy twitter on today's opening - wait! First of all, originally twitter was going to be priced at around $17 to $19 a share Last night twitter was priced at $26 a share - that's too high for a company that does not make money! Wait, I let you know in two or three weeks, where to buy twitter.

Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Monday, November 4, 2013

IT'S TIME TO GET IN!!!!!

                                      "IT'S JUST MY OPINION"

Here we go again! Everyone is saying we may be a stock bubble!! BULL!
There is so much cash on the sidelines waiting for a stock market correction that will not happen!
Remember November and December are the best months for a stock market rally! Why are they worried - oh the consumer will not spend $ thru the Christmas season! Again - BULL!
Don't listen to these morons! This market is headed a lot higher - period! If your on the sidelines, you will miss out on the greatest bull market in history. If you are invested in bonds or in cash - good luck, because you will lose money even with a low inflation rate! Wake up!
You have to be a stock picker because this is not a stock market, it's a market with the correct stocks. I have them - I've only been doing this since 1969! Let me help you.
For example AIG which I bought on Friday @ $48.12 was an absolute steal! It's net asset value is around $60!
CLMT which is one of 11 stocks I own, was just downgraded - what did I tell you in an earlier blog? These pundits always upgrade stocks when there too high and downgrade stocks when there too low!
They get paid a lot of money to do this - don't ask me why because they are more wrong than they are right! CLMT pay a yearly dividend of $2.74. It's concentrated in Bakken area - the future of American energy independence! This stock will trade twice what it's trading at today two years down the road - "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION".
Now lets go to BA this stock is producing fuel efficient airplanes, replacing 25 year old airplanes. This stock will have at least a 5 year run to the upside! I do not own this stock - but I wish I did!
If this stock continues to go higher, I can see a 2 for 1 stock split on this stock. The last time BA split was in May of 1997. Look for this this to happen in the near future. Remember, when stocks split 75% of the time in 3 to 4 years the stock goes back the original price prior to the stock split. This would be a huge win for investors! "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION".
By the way, it looks as if we are going to get shut out of the Twitter IPO - It looks as if the institutional investors are the ones that are going to get this stock on the IPO price - go figure us small guys get shut out again! Not to worry do not buy this stock on the first day of trading - wait a week and I'll tell you what price you should buy it at.
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Friday, November 1, 2013

Up , Up and Away!!!!!

                                 " IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL - 10
BAC, I was high on this stock until I found out that they are going to be attacked by the FHFA, Fannie Mae and the Justice apartment are going after BAC for $8.88 billion! Now these organizations went after JP Morgan Chase, with a settlement of $13 billion! Now JP Morgan can handle this is because it is an international Bank! I do not think BAC can take this hit, because it is a US bank!!!!
That's why I sold it! Now the administration aka Eric Holder and Co. are not friendly to business!
Why, I do not know! However, I have a guess and it is anti-business!
Where does this $ go to - that is a good question!
That these $ cannot go back into the US economy!!! What's the theory behind this behavior?
rumor - ATT buying Vodaphone! The Sprint CEO said on CNBC that there is more consolidation coming!
CLMT went ex-dividend on Thursday. In other words, the stock should have been down .685 cents, however it went down more than that., So what! I have owned this stock for over 14 months, in that time I collected over $2.74 per share! So buying this stock @ $29.22 has not hurt me! Once the Keystone pipeline is approved - look out this stock could double!!!!
Today, all I listened to on CNBC and Bloomberg the market is way overbought - Bull!!!!!
Do any of you know history? September and October are supposed to be the worst months for the stock market! They were not! What does that mean? November and December are the best months!
This market is going to explode to the upside! All of you on the sidelines or in bonds you will lose out on the biggest upside market in history!
Today, I bought AIG n@ $48.12. This is a steal - normal volume is around 9,300,000 million shares.
Today the volume was over 51,000,000! All the momentum traders and the weak holders are now out of this stock!
It is time to buy AIG!!
I'M looking at AMGN - stay toned!!!
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

BAC

                                     "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 9

Listen up! I just sold my BAC stock just now @ $14.12 - Why - The market is up over 90 points on the DOW and this stock is down. I'm looking at the charts and all indications this stock is going lower! I am going to use the proceeds to try to purchase the Twitter IPO! I know I recommended this stock on a scale down purchase not that long ago - but you have not lost $ on my recommendation!
Take the $ and run - there is something wrong with this stocks action and I do not like it!!!
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com?
      

Monday, October 28, 2013

                                             IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 8

If you sold covered calls on AAPL the Jan. $550 call at $15 - collecting $1,500 a call!
Put in right now to buy that call back on an open order @ $7.00! Collect the $800 a call!

Thanks,
Len
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/
                                    "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" -  VOL. 7 - IPO OPPORTUNITY!

Listen up - to anyone that has a large portfolio - call your broker and ask him or her to put in an indication to buy Twitter on the IPO price. Supposedly, it will be coming out at a $17 a share price.
This would be a steal! This will not be the cluster-mess that Facebook came out at - first of all its coming out on the NYSE - not the NASDAQ! "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that this IPO will be share holder friendly IPO!

Thank You;
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Saturday, October 26, 2013

HERE ARE VERY OPORTUNITIES IN LIFE _ THAT FINANCIALLY YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF - THIS IS THE TIME!

                             "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL.6 -OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING!!!

To all of you that are under 55 years of age - listen up! The next 7 years will present the best opportunity to make big money in the US stock market! This is not the time to sit on the sidelines if you want to retire with a nest egg, because social security income upon retirement is not going to cut it with inflation, Medicare and Medicare supplement insurance! We are all living longer - you will  need extra money just to exist in the life style of your dreams! You need the proper stock portfolio to achieve your goals - I have that proper portfolio! My wife and my son have that portfolio. They are up 33.78% so far this year!
If you are on the sidelines right now and not involved in the stock market, think about this for a minute. I started working full time in 1969. If I was allowed to put my social security withholdings into a DOW fund back then I would be worth over 10 million dollars today - think about that!
You need to think about your financial future - that's why I started this blog - it's for you and your future!
Enough of the lecture. Let's get started on the path to prosperity together!
Sign up for my blog - if you don't like it after a month - cancel!

Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Friday, October 25, 2013

DON'T BE FOOLED - THE BEARS ARE COMING OUT OF THE WOODWORK!!!

                                         "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 5

On Friday CNBC and Bloomberg had a lot of guests that were warning traders that there could be a major correction in the stock market. BULL!! Not if, but when the DOW closes over 15,709.58 for two consecutive days, the DOW will reach 17,500 at some point before the year ends! Don't miss the boat! Take your cash on hand and invest it in the stock market. Cash earns nothing! However, you must buy the correct stocks - no speculative stocks! That is not to say it will be a straight line up. Remember we will still have to climb the wall of worry - Washington politics, China etc. etc..
I have 11 stocks that you need in your portfolio - "IT'S JUST MY OPINION". However, you need to subscribe to my service to find out what they are and why I recommend them!
Next week we having a slew of earnings reports.
Monday: AAPL,CNA street estimates .76 cents, MRK street estimates .88 cents, TEN street estimates .95 cents just to name a few.
Tuesday: AET street estimates $1.53, ADM street estimates .48 cents, BP street estimates $1.00, OXY street estimates $1.91, VLO street estimates .49 cents just to name a few.
Wednesday: CMCSK street estimates .63 cents, GM street estimates .91 cents.
Thursday: BUD street estimates $1.32, CLX street estimates $1.00, COP street estimates $1.46, XOM street estimates $1.79, MA street estimates $6.95
Friday: BRK.B street estimates $1.60, CVX street estimates $2.75.
On Monday watch for AAPL earnings - not so much the earning, but how the stock trades toward the end of the day-it should be interesting!

Thank You;
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Sunday, October 20, 2013

What's next?

                                "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL - 4

I am announcing today to past and present subscribers that 10% of your proceeds will be donated to the Jimmy V Foundation for cancer research.
Now that we have gone through all the noise in Washington, what's next for the stock market?
Again, I go back to earnings! This weeks calendar starts Monday with DOW component MCD.
Tuesday, we have KMB, FCX, CMT, PCH, WHR.
Wednesday, we have BA, BMY, CAT, NSC, NOC.
Thursday, we have MMM, MO, CL, DOW, F, HSY, RTN, LUV.
Friday, we have ABBV, PG, UPS, WY.
Like I said on the last blog, we are finding out the CEO's who are guiding their companies in the right direction and those that are not! IBM as a perfect example - what a lousy quarter!! GOOG, I was not the only one that did not see that blowout quarter coming, most of Wall Street did not either!
Please be very careful about GOOG. I can tell you for certain, that all the analysts on Wall Street will raise their price targets starting Monday to very high levels. Do you remember when AAPL reached over $700 a share that analysts raised their upside targets to $1,000 and over? Do you remember what happened next? The stock crashed to under $400 a share. Please be careful when analysts upgrade or downgrade stocks, because they are for the most part wrong and late to the party!!!
I'm not saying GOOG will follow what happened to AAPL, because I don't think it will, however look back to what happened to money flows back when AAPL was upgraded! Money flowed out of AAPL into GOOG. Just watch and pay attention if GOOG starts to go down and AAPL starts to go up - that will tell you money is flowing out of GOOG into AAPL. Pay Attention!
Now, let's look at BAC - I recommended that it should be bought starting at $14 to down to $13.55.
Well you would have bought BAC at $14 and maybe at $13.75 - that's a winner!
CLMT, which will report earnings on October 30th has been acting well and the street has lowered earnings expectations for the upcoming quarter to .26 cents a share from .31 cents! That to me means if they beat that number, look out CLMT will rally - watch the earnings and guidance, that will be the key!
The stock I want you to look at is ABT. They reported earnings that beat the street and raised their dividend 57%! Look to buy ABT at $37 on a scale down basis to $35.75. When ABT hits a new 52 week high of $38.77, this stock should take off to the upside.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Next week, I will give you 11 stocks I believe you should have in your portfolio!
Now, for all you high net worth investors, I have a recommendation. If you believe like I do, that 5% to 10% of your portfolio should be invested in some type of managed futures, I highly suggest that you contact Steven Hansen. Go to http://foremosttrading.com

Thank You.
Len Dwelle




Saturday, October 19, 2013

What next?

                             "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - vol. 4

Today, I am announcing to past and present subscribers that 10% of your subscription rate will go to the Jimmy V Foundation for cancer research!
This just in - the Washington Redskins are changing their name! They are dropping the word Washington! After the debt fiasco last week in Washington, I don't blame them.
Well, well, well, we are finding out quickly that this is not a stock market - this is a market of stocks!
Looking at the earnings so far, many stocks are beating the street earnings.
Then there are spoilers like IBM - ouch! Your killing the DOW average. Every 10 points down on IBM is costing the DOW 55 points!
Then there's GOOG, man I wasn't the only one that did not see their incredible earnings report coming - the entire street did not either!
Now watch all the analysts ramp up their price targets Monday morning. However, remember when AAPL was trading over $700 a share and the analysts raised their target prices to over a $1,000 a share? AAPL soon after collapsed well under $400 a share! I do not think that will happen to GOOG, however be wary of upgrades and downgrades -most of the time they are way too late! Also, remember when AAPL started to go down - money flows were coming out AAPL and into GOOG. Watch to see if the reverse may happen this time around.
If you took advantage of my BAC call, you would have bought the stock @ $14 and again at $13.75,
CLMT is starting to act better - now watch for their earnings which will be reported between October 28th and October 31st which is expected to be ,31 cents a share,
My new recommendation is ABT. They reported good earnings and raised their dividend 57%.
"IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that ABT should be bought on a scale down basis - starting @ $37 down to $35.75. When this stock hits a new 52 week high, $38.77, it should be off to the races.
This week we have a slew of earnings reports. Make sure you keep an eye on the stocks you personally own especially if their earning are coming out this week!
Now next weeks blog will feature 11 stocks, "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that you should have them in your portfolio!
For you high net worth investors, I would highly recommend that you invest at least 5% of your portfolio in a managed commodity fund. I highly recommend that you go to www.foremosttrading.com and ask for Steven Hanson.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

" IT'S JUST MY OPINION" Vol. 3

 
If you are a long term trader, do yourself a favor and do not watch the news on the debt. ceiling from now until the 18th of October! One senator will speak and the market goes up. One Congressman will speak and the market will go down. It's all noise!!!
Not even Washington, which is totally dysfunctional, will default on our debt!
The only programs I want to watch and watch carefully are Bloomberg and CNBC. Why?
Earnings, earnings and earnings!
Starting Tuesday through the first week in November, every major company will report their earnings!
We will find out which companies have great CEO'S and which do not!
What to look for you ask?
Did the company you own stock in beat the street estimates?
What is their forward guidance?
Did they raise their dividend?
Did they announce a new buy back program?
If the answer to those questions is yes - this market will take off to the upside!
Will the market fluctuate between now and the 18th?
Yes! If you are a long term trader does it matter? No!
This is the week to pay attention to earning! Do your homework on each stock that you personally own!
"IT'S JUST MY OPINION" , that the overall earnings season will be a surprise on the upside!
That's not to say some stocks will not meet earnings expectations.
Now, let's say that Washington in their stupidity brings the US in a default circumstance!
Then your portfolio's of stocks are at total risk!
If that were to happen I have a friend in Chicago you need to contact immediately if not sooner.
I have known him over 35 years. He handles individual portfolio's for names you would know!
From time to time he will hedge his clients stock holdings by selling S&P futures to protect them. He is the best at protecting clients money! Send me an e-mail and I'll send you his name and phone number.
I have done a lot of chart work over 44 years, candlestick, point and figure and others - not to bore you. "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that the DOW and the NASDAQ will outperform the S&P for the rest of the year.
Now, there is a stock I have been tracking for over 3 years, that you may want to keep an eye on.
CLMT - current yield around 9.18% or higher depending on where the stock closes on a particular day. CLMT is down 20% in the last 6 months, because the last two quarterly earnings were below expectations. According to John Egan writer for the industrial info resource. "North Dakota is having a genuine grassroot refinery boom. Given that the last grassroot refinery to be built in the US broke ground when Jimmy Carter was president."
CLMT closed @ $28.69 - next earnings October 28th - estimated earnings .31 cents.
This quarter may miss also so be careful. However, "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that it is already backed into the stock price. After earnings this stock could go down to near $26 a share.
Be aware of two things. 1 - the EPA maybe changing refinery rules shortly and 2- If and when the Keystone pipeline is approved  "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" this stock should be bought.
                              Thank You,
Len Dwelle 

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

"IT'S JUST MY OPINION" VOL 2

 In my first newsletter, I recommended to buy BAC on a scale down basis starting @$14  down to $13.55 a share.
If you are looking for penny stocks, day trades, I'm not your man! I am a long term thinker.
Having said that, there is a way to take advantage of short term situations of your individual stock holdings by using cover call options.
For example, back in late 2012, I bought DIS @ $50.29. When the DOW first hit the 15,500 mark,  DIS rallied to $68. I sold October 70 strike price calls @ $2.50 and collected $250 for every call I sold. For every 100 shares of DIS I owned I could sell 1 covered call, because 1 call represents 100 shares of stock.
Now, what does that mean? I believed that DIS stock would not reach $70 by October 18th, 2013. These are the kind of opportunities to enhance your percentage of profit on your individual stock holdings.
Now, what is the downside on my DIS trade?
What if DIS closes over $70 a share on October 18th, 2013.
If that happens, my DIS shares will be called away @ $70 a share and I will keep the $250 for each DIS call I sold.
If that happens, I sold my DIS shares @ $72.50 a share. That is approximately a 45% return in 11 months and that does not include any dividends I may have collected!
However, DIS stock is now trading between $65 to $66 a share.
So I believe the call options, which expire October 18th,2013, will expire worthless. That means I keep the $250 per call I sold.
Now I see the same opportunity in AAPL and GOOG stocks.
In my opinion, I do not see AAPL achieving a stock price of $550 a share by January 18th, 2014. I do not see GOOG achieving a stock price of $1,000 a share by January 18th,2014.
So here are my recommendations - "IT'S JUST MY OPINION".
For every 100 shares you own of AAPL, I would sell 1 January 18th,2014 $550 strike price call @ $15.00 on an open order and collect $1,500 for each call, which gets credited to your account!
For ever 100 shares you own of GOOG, sell 1 January 18th, 2014 $1,000 strike price @ $7.00 on an open order and collect $700 for each call, which gets credited to your account!
What is the worst case scenario?
If AAPL closes over $550 a share on January 18th, 2014 - your AAPL shares will be called away, which is like selling your AAPL shares @ $565 a share on January 18th, 2014 and you keep the $1,500 you collected on each call.
If GOOG closes over $1,000 a share on January 18th, 2014 - your GOOG shares will be called away, which is like selling your GOOG shares @ $1,007.00 a share and you keep the $700 you collected on each call you sold.
If AAPL closes under $550 a share on January 18th, 2014 you keep the $ you collected on your calls. If GOOG closes under $1,000 a share on January 18th, 2014 you keep the $ you collected on your calls.
Now "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"

Thursday, October 3, 2013

The Next Move on the DOW

Here we go again!! The wall of worry. Between the FED tapering, Syria, the Government shutdown - in the long run it does not matter!
Back in May around the 20th, the DOW reached over 15,500. Then broke down little over 1,000 points to just under 14,600. Around June 23rd the DOW ran up to over 15,600. In early August the DOW broke down about 1,000 points to around 14,780. Late August early September the DOW climbed almost 1,000 points to over 15,700. Now it is possible the DOW could head down to around 14,900.
I see a pattern here! Higher highs and higher lows - that tells me the DOW is going a lot higher!
The next time the DOW trades over 15,700 for two days in a row the DOW will at some time late in 2013 the DOW will reach 17.550!
I am starting a weekly news letter "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION".
Depending on market situations, I may add more letters.
I have 11 stocks that need to be bought!
I'll give you one - BAC needs to be bought on a scale down basis starting @ $14 down to $13.55. In the next 14 months this stock will reach $20 a share.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
You can subscribe to my newsletter today!
For the low monthly rate of $50!

Thank You
Len Dwelle

lendwelle@hotmail.com