Sunday, October 13, 2013

" IT'S JUST MY OPINION" Vol. 3

 
If you are a long term trader, do yourself a favor and do not watch the news on the debt. ceiling from now until the 18th of October! One senator will speak and the market goes up. One Congressman will speak and the market will go down. It's all noise!!!
Not even Washington, which is totally dysfunctional, will default on our debt!
The only programs I want to watch and watch carefully are Bloomberg and CNBC. Why?
Earnings, earnings and earnings!
Starting Tuesday through the first week in November, every major company will report their earnings!
We will find out which companies have great CEO'S and which do not!
What to look for you ask?
Did the company you own stock in beat the street estimates?
What is their forward guidance?
Did they raise their dividend?
Did they announce a new buy back program?
If the answer to those questions is yes - this market will take off to the upside!
Will the market fluctuate between now and the 18th?
Yes! If you are a long term trader does it matter? No!
This is the week to pay attention to earning! Do your homework on each stock that you personally own!
"IT'S JUST MY OPINION" , that the overall earnings season will be a surprise on the upside!
That's not to say some stocks will not meet earnings expectations.
Now, let's say that Washington in their stupidity brings the US in a default circumstance!
Then your portfolio's of stocks are at total risk!
If that were to happen I have a friend in Chicago you need to contact immediately if not sooner.
I have known him over 35 years. He handles individual portfolio's for names you would know!
From time to time he will hedge his clients stock holdings by selling S&P futures to protect them. He is the best at protecting clients money! Send me an e-mail and I'll send you his name and phone number.
I have done a lot of chart work over 44 years, candlestick, point and figure and others - not to bore you. "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that the DOW and the NASDAQ will outperform the S&P for the rest of the year.
Now, there is a stock I have been tracking for over 3 years, that you may want to keep an eye on.
CLMT - current yield around 9.18% or higher depending on where the stock closes on a particular day. CLMT is down 20% in the last 6 months, because the last two quarterly earnings were below expectations. According to John Egan writer for the industrial info resource. "North Dakota is having a genuine grassroot refinery boom. Given that the last grassroot refinery to be built in the US broke ground when Jimmy Carter was president."
CLMT closed @ $28.69 - next earnings October 28th - estimated earnings .31 cents.
This quarter may miss also so be careful. However, "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" that it is already backed into the stock price. After earnings this stock could go down to near $26 a share.
Be aware of two things. 1 - the EPA maybe changing refinery rules shortly and 2- If and when the Keystone pipeline is approved  "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" this stock should be bought.
                              Thank You,
Len Dwelle 

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