Friday, November 29, 2013

FED TAPERING WILL NOT HAPPEN TILL MARCH 2014

                                         "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 17

The FED will not taper till March of 2014. Anyone that thinks the FED will taper earlier is a moron!
Why - the FED knows that the annual GDP number will be at or under 2%. They know the unemployment rate will not approach 6.5% for a very long time. They do not trust Washington to come up with good decisions to move our great country forward economically!
Therefore - no taper till March.
There is so much cash on the sidelines waiting to get into this market - that on any down move in the market will be met with buyers. Thus this market will rally till the end of the year!
                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at the 3 stocks I told you to watch on my last blog.
C - up .51 cents for the week or .97%
Yahoo - up .49 cents for the week or 1.34%
MU - up .91 cents for the week or 4.51%

Now lets look at stocks on my watch list.
T - I believe this stock needs to be bought on a scale down basis starting at $35.10 down to $34.11
ABBV - a spin off of ABT yields 3.30% - any close over $50.20 - this stock will climb to higher levels.
ABT - yields 2.30% - a close over $38.81 - this stock should climb higher.
AIG - a close over it's 52 week high - $53.33 - this stock should go higher.
BIP - yields 4.30% should be bought on a scale down basis starting at $38.21 down to $36.57.
MO - buy on a scale down basis starting at $36.81 down to $34.58.
CLMT - yields 10% - when this stock closes over $31.73 - it needs to be bought.
MFA - yields 26%!!! a close over $7.75 - this stock will climb higher.
LULU - this stock is way oversold on a weekly basis - a close over $70.49 should propel this stock to its 52 week high of $82.53.

                                      "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle

Saturday, November 23, 2013

DON'T FIGHT THE FED!!!

                                            "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 16
   
     This past week I have heard so many fund managers on the business networks warning investors that a big stock market correction is coming soon. I actually heard one of them refer to the 1929 crash. Really! That idiot forgot something about that event! In 1929 people were buying stocks with 10% down!!!! Where was Congress then? Why did they not stop that insane practice? Well, because just like today's politicians, they had know understanding of finance! They we're clueless that it was a recipe for disaster!
     Does this sound familiar? Remember the TV adds starting around 2005 - buy a house - no money down - we will give you 125% of the value of the house you want to purchase! Again, where were our politicians?  Didn't they see the obvious handwriting on the wall? History has a funny way of repeating itself!
      Enough of my rant! Let's concentrate on the future. American companies are sitting on hordes of cash never seen before in our country! That is why in the future you will see more mergers and acquisitions to boost shareholder value. Example - Time-Warner with Comcast. Also you will see more spin-offs, which also are shareholder friendly.
      FED chairman, Ben Bernanke announced this week that short term interest rates will remain low for a very long period of time! This is the green light for the stock market to continue to rally! Another thing I want to mention, you will hear a lot about FED tapering from now to the end of the year. The FED has stated emphatically that FED tapering is in no way any indication of FED tightening! That is missed by all that claim that a FED tapering will cause a big correction in the stock market - those waiting for a correction or even worse selling their stocks anticipating a correction, will miss out on the big surge from now till the end of the year!
                                        "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
          By the way in my earlier blog, I recommended that for every 100 shares of AAPL you owned to sell 1 January 2014 $550 call @ $15 and collect $1,500 which gets credited to your account - That
is called a covered call. Remember every call option represents 100 shares of the underlying stock. So the $15 you collected = $1,500. Then I recommended that you buy that option back @ $7 or $700 - creating a $800 profit for each cover call you sold @ $15 and you still own the stock. Well on 11-20-2013 you would have bought back that option @ $7.
            There are 3 stocks I want you to look at - remember what Jim Cramer of CNBC says "Do Your Homework" before buying any stock!
             MU - David Einhorn's, Greenlight Capital Fund, bought this stock recently even thought its near its 52 week high. Now, just because David bought this stock, it does not mean you should. However, if you want to see why he bought this stock - go to Yahoo finance.com - punch in MU and go to news. I believe his analysis is correct.
                                                   "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
               Yahoo - Yahoo? you say - well its a great way and a cheaper way to own Alibaba, which is the biggest and most popular e-commerce site in China. Yahoo owns 24% stake in Alibaba. That should be floor on any break in Yahoo stock!
                Citigroup - symbol C. C is the only major US bank that is trading below it's tangible book value - $53.75. When C trades over it's double top of $54, this stock could really take off to the upside.
                                                     "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
                 By the way, do not buy Twitter yet - Never buy a stock that does not make a profit! Wait - I'll let you know what price and when to buy - when I see it!
On Friday, GOOG closed down - $2.18
                  APPL   closed down - $1.34
I find that curious with the markets closing at all time highs. Don't get me wrong - I like both of these stocks for the long haul but they are acting as if we can buy them cheaper at some point.
                                                       "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
                                                   

                                                     
                                        

Saturday, November 16, 2013

THIS MARKET IS A SHORTS- NIGHTMARE!!!!!!

                                               "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL - 14
Did you know there are many hedge funds and mutual funds that are under performing the S&P Index by 10%! So what you say! I'll tell you what - they have to catch up with the market before year end or they will lose clients! They only have a month and one half to accomplish this feat. Watch the high beta stocks in the next few weeks that is the only way they can catch up. What is a high beta stock? Let me describe it this way. When the market goes up 10% - the high beta stocks have a tendency to go up 12 to 15%. An example of a high beta stock would be AMZN and AMGN, just to name two. Believe me there are many more.
Pay attention to what the big money is doing. Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway buying $3.5 billion worth of Exxon stock and selling 44% of it's stake in Conoco Phillips.
George Soros selling part of his holdings in GOOG and one of his recent purchases was AMZN.
Bill Ackman's hedge fund acquiring 10% stake in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Kimberly Clark hires Morgan Stanley to spin off their health care unit. These spin offs tend to be big winners in the long run. Examples would be ABT spinning off AABV, MO spinning off PM - both spinoffs huge winners for investors.
Pay attention to AAPL. Carl Icahn owns a large stake in this stock. He wants Bill Cook to increase AAPLE'S dividend and to increase it's buy back program. It has not happened yet - watch Carl sell some of his shares just to some pressure on Mr. Cook. I'm not saying that AAPL will not increase it's dividend or increase it's buy back program in the future - Carl is a very impatient person. I also love AAPLE stock for the long term but the short term could be interesting.
The same goes for GOOG. I love this stock in the long run but do not be surprised if it sells off to around $980 a share only because hedge funds and mutual funds that own this stock may want to take profits so they can get into high beta stocks before year end. "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I have been asked about my sell call on BAC. I owned it between $12.07 down to $11.89. I sold it around $14.12. I took that money and invested it in AIG - I have not lost any ground on this transaction! The reason why the bank stocks have rallied in the past couple of weeks is that the street feels that the yield curve will steepen, which is great for banks. That thinking remains to be seen.
With Janet Yellen to be nominated as the new FED Chairwomen, I do not believe we will see any FED tapering soon! "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I was asked about BA - I love this stock over the next 5 years, however with this contract dispute you hear from the pundits very soon about how they will not be able to keep up demand. So I would start buying this stock on a pullback to around $126 a share.
I was asked about AMGN - same story- I love this stock for the long haul. If this stock gets to $107, I think it should be bought.
I was asked about AMZN - same story - I love this stock. If it pulls back to around $341 to $326, I think it needs to be bought.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/
  

Sunday, November 10, 2013

BUY THE CORRECT STOCKS ON ANY BREAK!!!!!

                         "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" VOL. 13
For those of you that are in bonds or in cash - this is your worst nightmare! You are missing out on the huge stock market rally of all time!
Needless to say that you need to be in the correct stocks for this move, however if you are not participating in this market you will loss out!
My chart work shows me that when not if the DOW closes over 15,800 on two consecutive closes, we will be in for a wild ride to 17,800 by years end!
Now lets talk about tweeter - TWTR - it is not a but yet! I'll let you know when it is.
I'm looking at four stocks.
MO support around $34.41
ABT support around $34.76
T support around $33.95
CINF support around $49.76
WMT earnings coming out on Thursday - expected earnings $1.13 a share.
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Thursday, November 7, 2013

THIS IS NOT A SPRINT- IT'S A MARATHON!!

                                        "IT'S JUST MY OPIONION" - VOL. 13

The Market is not a sprint - it's a marathon! Today because the ECB lowered rates by .25 basis points - idiots are saying the FED will start their tapering ahead of schedule. Are you kidding me! They have stated that they want to see the unemployment rate around 6.5% - that will not happen soon!
What they are not saying is that the FED does not trust Washington and their fiscal policies! That is important and no one is saying that. Oh, the unemployment numbers are going to be bad because of the government waited to the last minute to get the job done! There's another reason for the FED to keep rates down and not tapering. So why did the market go down today? It's not a sprint it's a marathon!
Nothing ever goes straight up - nothing! Let the market settle down or even go downward for 4 to 5 days. However, my weekly chart work says we are going higher in the DOW.
Obviously, money sold this stock market today and accumulated a lot of cash. This cash is on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market,
When will they get back in?
I have a very unusual answer.
The answer is GOOG - I know this sounds crazy but listen up. GOOG was trading around $880 before its last earnings - now as a chartist it left a huge gap when it went up and went over $1050.
When that gap is filled around $880 a share - this market will bottom!!
Just remember there is a lot of cash on the sidelines - this money is looking for an entry point.
I just gave it to you - now lets see if I'm right.
I was right back in November in 2012 telling everyone that the DOW would achieve 15,700!
We shall see.
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

DO NOT BUY TWITTER ON TODAY'S OPENING! WAIT!

                                          "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 12

Well, Well, Well - every continent is trying to force their currency down. The ECB just lowered their rates by a .25 points! Japan is keeping their rate down and obviously the US is keeping her rates down. Why? We are all competing for export advantage by keeping our currencies down. Markets around the world now have a free pass to the upside! When money is cheap - markets go up!
Now, please do not buy twitter on today's opening - wait! First of all, originally twitter was going to be priced at around $17 to $19 a share Last night twitter was priced at $26 a share - that's too high for a company that does not make money! Wait, I let you know in two or three weeks, where to buy twitter.

Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Monday, November 4, 2013

IT'S TIME TO GET IN!!!!!

                                      "IT'S JUST MY OPINION"

Here we go again! Everyone is saying we may be a stock bubble!! BULL!
There is so much cash on the sidelines waiting for a stock market correction that will not happen!
Remember November and December are the best months for a stock market rally! Why are they worried - oh the consumer will not spend $ thru the Christmas season! Again - BULL!
Don't listen to these morons! This market is headed a lot higher - period! If your on the sidelines, you will miss out on the greatest bull market in history. If you are invested in bonds or in cash - good luck, because you will lose money even with a low inflation rate! Wake up!
You have to be a stock picker because this is not a stock market, it's a market with the correct stocks. I have them - I've only been doing this since 1969! Let me help you.
For example AIG which I bought on Friday @ $48.12 was an absolute steal! It's net asset value is around $60!
CLMT which is one of 11 stocks I own, was just downgraded - what did I tell you in an earlier blog? These pundits always upgrade stocks when there too high and downgrade stocks when there too low!
They get paid a lot of money to do this - don't ask me why because they are more wrong than they are right! CLMT pay a yearly dividend of $2.74. It's concentrated in Bakken area - the future of American energy independence! This stock will trade twice what it's trading at today two years down the road - "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION".
Now lets go to BA this stock is producing fuel efficient airplanes, replacing 25 year old airplanes. This stock will have at least a 5 year run to the upside! I do not own this stock - but I wish I did!
If this stock continues to go higher, I can see a 2 for 1 stock split on this stock. The last time BA split was in May of 1997. Look for this this to happen in the near future. Remember, when stocks split 75% of the time in 3 to 4 years the stock goes back the original price prior to the stock split. This would be a huge win for investors! "THAT'S JUST MY OPINION".
By the way, it looks as if we are going to get shut out of the Twitter IPO - It looks as if the institutional investors are the ones that are going to get this stock on the IPO price - go figure us small guys get shut out again! Not to worry do not buy this stock on the first day of trading - wait a week and I'll tell you what price you should buy it at.
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/

Friday, November 1, 2013

Up , Up and Away!!!!!

                                 " IT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL - 10
BAC, I was high on this stock until I found out that they are going to be attacked by the FHFA, Fannie Mae and the Justice apartment are going after BAC for $8.88 billion! Now these organizations went after JP Morgan Chase, with a settlement of $13 billion! Now JP Morgan can handle this is because it is an international Bank! I do not think BAC can take this hit, because it is a US bank!!!!
That's why I sold it! Now the administration aka Eric Holder and Co. are not friendly to business!
Why, I do not know! However, I have a guess and it is anti-business!
Where does this $ go to - that is a good question!
That these $ cannot go back into the US economy!!! What's the theory behind this behavior?
rumor - ATT buying Vodaphone! The Sprint CEO said on CNBC that there is more consolidation coming!
CLMT went ex-dividend on Thursday. In other words, the stock should have been down .685 cents, however it went down more than that., So what! I have owned this stock for over 14 months, in that time I collected over $2.74 per share! So buying this stock @ $29.22 has not hurt me! Once the Keystone pipeline is approved - look out this stock could double!!!!
Today, all I listened to on CNBC and Bloomberg the market is way overbought - Bull!!!!!
Do any of you know history? September and October are supposed to be the worst months for the stock market! They were not! What does that mean? November and December are the best months!
This market is going to explode to the upside! All of you on the sidelines or in bonds you will lose out on the biggest upside market in history!
Today, I bought AIG n@ $48.12. This is a steal - normal volume is around 9,300,000 million shares.
Today the volume was over 51,000,000! All the momentum traders and the weak holders are now out of this stock!
It is time to buy AIG!!
I'M looking at AMGN - stay toned!!!
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
http://marketmoneyandnews.blogspot.com/