"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 37
Let's see - where do I start! Today's high on the DOW was 16,398.95 - then in a matter of less than a hour went down to 16,226.09!!!! and finally closed at 16,321.71!!!! WHY? Two reasons- let's take the rally up to 16,398.95 first - there are so many traders trying to pick the top of this market - they keep shorting the market - well on the rally they got their head handed to them. Then what happened - news that Russian troupes were invading the Ukraine!!! The DOW fell quickly to 16,226.09.
3 things were in play on this down move!
1 - The shorts started selling stocks short on the news to make up their losses on the earlier run up!
2 - Short term traders panicked and sold their stock holdings!
3 - On the last trading day of the month - FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS - FUNDS HAVE SOLD THEIR HOLDINGS - WHY? TO BOOK PROFITS!!!
Well, you and I both know that means they have accumulated a lot of CASH - NOW SITTING ON THE SIDELINES HOPING THE MARKET WILL GO DOWN SO THEY CAN BUY STOCKS!!!!
THAT IS WHY THIS MARKET HAS A FLOOR!!!!!!
Oh - don't get me wrong - it is possible the market will go down - but not for long!!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Those of you that are 45 years and younger - PLEASE DO YOURSELF A FAVOR!! CHECK OUT -VOL. 20 - IT'S IMPORTANT FOR YOUR FUTURE!!!
People ask me - I see on your VOL.- 28 - you told us to look PG and KMB.
Vol. - 36 - you told us George Soros bought 9.3 million shares of TEVA.
SO WHY DON'T YOU OWN ANY OF THESE STOCKS!!
ANSWER - I AM FULLY INVESTED - IF I HAD CASH IN THE ACCOUNTS - I WOULD HAVE BOUGHT THESE STOCKS - SO THERE!!!!
Remember on my last blog - I told to watch if the DOW closed 2 days over 16,225.70 - WELL IT HAS!
THAT IS WHY I'M STILL BULLISH ON THIS MARKET!!!
Now pay attention to WASHINGTON!!!
There is a movement in both the HOUSE and the SENATE to reduce THE CORPORATE TAX RATE FROM 35% DOWN TO 25% AND ELIMINATE TAX LOOP-HOLDS SO WE CAN COMPETE WITH OTHER COUNTRIES!!! WE ARE ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN CORPORATE TAX RATES IN THE WORLD!!!!! THAT WOULD MEAN MORE JOBS AND MORE LENDING TO SMALL BUSINESSES!!! THAT WOULD BE HUGH - NOT ONLY FOR THE US ECONOMY BUT FOR THE STOCK MARKET!!!!! STAY TUNED!!!!!
Now let's look at this week's action.
The DOW for the week closed @16321.71 - up 218.41 or up 1.36%
Now let's look at my wife's and my son's account.
DIS - closed @ $80.81 - up 0.68 cents or up 0.85%
If this stock keeps going up - I can see a 2 for 1 stock split coming in the future!
NKE - closed @ $78.30 - up $2.05 or up 2.69%
back on November 15th - 2012 - NKE announced a 2 for 1 stock split - that day the stock closed @ $90.83 after the announcement! NKE is approaching that $90 figure.
I have a theory on stock splits as long as the stock is worthy!
3 years after the stock split - the stock returns to its original price before the split. That's at least a 100% return!
AIG - closed @ $49.77 - up 0.79 cents or up 1.61%
CHK - closed @ $25.91 - down 0.66 cents or down 2.48%
THIS STOCK IS A STEAL!!!
SD - closed @ $6.45 - up 0.05 cents -or up 0.78%
MU - closed @ $ 24.19 - or down 0.89 cents - or down 3.55%
THIS STOCK IS A STEAL!!!
JCI - closed @ $ 49.40 - or down 0.32 cents - or down 0.64%
THIS STOCK IS A STEAL!!!!
RIG - closed @ $ 42.40 - or down 0.74 cents- or down 1.72%
THIS STOCK IS WAY OVERSOLD - IT'S A STEAL!!!!
FDML - closed @ $ 18.84 - or up $1.31 - or up 7.47%
Again THIS STOCK IS A STEAL!!!
STAY TUNED!!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Have a great week!
Friday, February 28, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
ATTENTION ALL TRADERS - BUY BOSE NOISE- CANCELLING HEADPHONES
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 36
Maybe it's me - but when I look around the rest of the world - I'm beginning to believe the GREAT USA is the only country on the planet that is not in the stone age!!!
The market on Wednesday was up almost 90 points then went to down almost 90 points! Why? The riots in Kiev and airline bomb threats coming from overseas to the US and the FEDERAL RESERVE MINUTES indicating interest rate hikes in the later half of 2015. NOISE - NOISE - NOISE - someone please hand me my noise reduction head-phones!!!!!!
Unrest in Egypt,Syria,Ukraine,on and on and on!!! Please do me a favor go around your house - tell me how many items you have from these countries!!! I'll bet NONE!!! I hate to sound as if I do not care - because I feel sorry for those people - believe me! However, what does that have to do with US companies earning?
With over 90% of the S&P 500 companies reporting their 4th quarter earnings - profits are on track for over a 9% increase!!!!!!! According to RBC Capital Markets - that's 3 full points higher than analysts expected!!!
Why is that important? The street is going to have to raise their forecasts not only on these stocks - but on the entire market in general. I must caution you that not all stocks will participate in the upcoming rally!
Remember it is not just a stock market - IT IS A MARKET OF STOCKS!!!! You have to own the correct stocks!!!!!
Why are certain stocks going to make you money? Look at what is happening in M&A - That's Mergers and Acquisitions - Global M&A stands at $496.8 BILLION so far in 2014!!!!! US M&A volume stands at $320.2 BILLION so far in 2014 - That's an increase of 34% from 2013!!!!!!
That is just the beginning!!! Companies are going to buy out other companies at rate not seen in years!!!
Morons are coming out of the woodwork trying to predict the top of the stock market - in order to make a name for themselves -PLEASE PUT ON YOUR NOISE-CANCELING HEADPHONES!!!!!!
These idiots actually pointed to Billionaire George Soros's Fund increased it's "BEARISH BET" on the S&P INDEX with a $1.3 BILLION put position - which is 11.13% of his fund. Remember a put position is a bet the market is going down.
These morons forget to mention Soros Fund purchased 12,580,700 shares of MSFT! and bought
1,515,730 shares of FEDEX or that his fund bought 1,911,335 shares of HAL! Amazing to me!!!
Oh, I forgot - he also bought 9.3 million shares of TEVA!!!
Activist - Billionaire - Carl Icahn suggests that he seeks strategic alternatives for his investment in CHK - STAY TUNED!!!
Watch for Icahn to get more involved in his stake in FDML and RIG-!!!
David Einhorn's Greenlight added $1 billion position in MU in the 4th quarter!!
AIG's book value is now up to $68.62 - with the shares trading at around $50 - that represents a discount to book value of 29.70!!!!!!!!!!
Follow the money people - They are not BILLIONAIRES because they make bad bets!!!!
Let's look at this weeks action.
The DOW closed @ 16,103.30 - for the week down 51.09 or down 0.32%
The high for the week was 16,225.72 - we need to watch that # - Why? - 2 closes over that # - we will be on our way to a new all-time high!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at my Wife's and my Son's account! For the week.
DIS - closed @ $80.13 - up 0.90 cents or up 1.14%
Now 21.47% of their portfolio
On 2/19/2014 I bought back the covered calls 03/2014 $77.50 calls @ $2.85 - lost a little but gained a lot on the stock!!!
NKE - closed @ $76.48 - up $1.41 or up 1.88%
Now is 21.14% of their portfolio
AIG - closed @ $48.98 - up 0.00 or up 0.00%
Now is 21.76% of their portfolio
SD - closed @ $6.40 - down 0.01 cents or down 0.16%
Now is 4.1% of their portfolio
MU - closed @ $25.08 - up 0.00 cents or up 0.00%
Now is 14.90% of their portfolio
JCI - closed @ $49.72 - up 0.72 cents or up 1.47%
Now is 3.81% of their portfolio
RIG - closed @ $43.14 - up 0.57 cents or up 1.34%
Now is 8.9% of their portfolio
FDML - closed @ $17.53 - up 0.62 cents or up 3.67%
Now is 1.36% of their portfolio
CHK - closed @ $26.57 - $1.43 or up 5.69%
Now is 2.56% of their portfolio
Next week should be interesting!!!!
STAY TUNED!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Maybe it's me - but when I look around the rest of the world - I'm beginning to believe the GREAT USA is the only country on the planet that is not in the stone age!!!
The market on Wednesday was up almost 90 points then went to down almost 90 points! Why? The riots in Kiev and airline bomb threats coming from overseas to the US and the FEDERAL RESERVE MINUTES indicating interest rate hikes in the later half of 2015. NOISE - NOISE - NOISE - someone please hand me my noise reduction head-phones!!!!!!
Unrest in Egypt,Syria,Ukraine,on and on and on!!! Please do me a favor go around your house - tell me how many items you have from these countries!!! I'll bet NONE!!! I hate to sound as if I do not care - because I feel sorry for those people - believe me! However, what does that have to do with US companies earning?
With over 90% of the S&P 500 companies reporting their 4th quarter earnings - profits are on track for over a 9% increase!!!!!!! According to RBC Capital Markets - that's 3 full points higher than analysts expected!!!
Why is that important? The street is going to have to raise their forecasts not only on these stocks - but on the entire market in general. I must caution you that not all stocks will participate in the upcoming rally!
Remember it is not just a stock market - IT IS A MARKET OF STOCKS!!!! You have to own the correct stocks!!!!!
Why are certain stocks going to make you money? Look at what is happening in M&A - That's Mergers and Acquisitions - Global M&A stands at $496.8 BILLION so far in 2014!!!!! US M&A volume stands at $320.2 BILLION so far in 2014 - That's an increase of 34% from 2013!!!!!!
That is just the beginning!!! Companies are going to buy out other companies at rate not seen in years!!!
Morons are coming out of the woodwork trying to predict the top of the stock market - in order to make a name for themselves -PLEASE PUT ON YOUR NOISE-CANCELING HEADPHONES!!!!!!
These idiots actually pointed to Billionaire George Soros's Fund increased it's "BEARISH BET" on the S&P INDEX with a $1.3 BILLION put position - which is 11.13% of his fund. Remember a put position is a bet the market is going down.
These morons forget to mention Soros Fund purchased 12,580,700 shares of MSFT! and bought
1,515,730 shares of FEDEX or that his fund bought 1,911,335 shares of HAL! Amazing to me!!!
Oh, I forgot - he also bought 9.3 million shares of TEVA!!!
Activist - Billionaire - Carl Icahn suggests that he seeks strategic alternatives for his investment in CHK - STAY TUNED!!!
Watch for Icahn to get more involved in his stake in FDML and RIG-!!!
David Einhorn's Greenlight added $1 billion position in MU in the 4th quarter!!
AIG's book value is now up to $68.62 - with the shares trading at around $50 - that represents a discount to book value of 29.70!!!!!!!!!!
Follow the money people - They are not BILLIONAIRES because they make bad bets!!!!
Let's look at this weeks action.
The DOW closed @ 16,103.30 - for the week down 51.09 or down 0.32%
The high for the week was 16,225.72 - we need to watch that # - Why? - 2 closes over that # - we will be on our way to a new all-time high!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at my Wife's and my Son's account! For the week.
DIS - closed @ $80.13 - up 0.90 cents or up 1.14%
Now 21.47% of their portfolio
On 2/19/2014 I bought back the covered calls 03/2014 $77.50 calls @ $2.85 - lost a little but gained a lot on the stock!!!
NKE - closed @ $76.48 - up $1.41 or up 1.88%
Now is 21.14% of their portfolio
AIG - closed @ $48.98 - up 0.00 or up 0.00%
Now is 21.76% of their portfolio
SD - closed @ $6.40 - down 0.01 cents or down 0.16%
Now is 4.1% of their portfolio
MU - closed @ $25.08 - up 0.00 cents or up 0.00%
Now is 14.90% of their portfolio
JCI - closed @ $49.72 - up 0.72 cents or up 1.47%
Now is 3.81% of their portfolio
RIG - closed @ $43.14 - up 0.57 cents or up 1.34%
Now is 8.9% of their portfolio
FDML - closed @ $17.53 - up 0.62 cents or up 3.67%
Now is 1.36% of their portfolio
CHK - closed @ $26.57 - $1.43 or up 5.69%
Now is 2.56% of their portfolio
Next week should be interesting!!!!
STAY TUNED!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Friday, February 14, 2014
SNOW PROBLEM - NOW WHAT!!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL.- 35
On blog # 33 on Feb. 5th - I stated we would have a 700 point rally in the DOW in a very short period of time!! At that time the DOW closed @ 15,440.23 - for a 700 point rally the DOW would have to go to 16,140!! Well guess what it closed today @ 16,154.39!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The flack I received after I posted on Feb. 5th was unbelievable - "Your a moron" - "You don't have a clue what is happening" - "This market is going to collapse" and on and on and on!
Look people I am here for you to make money. Don't listen to the noise on TV! My job is to give you the straight story so you can succeed in the crazy world we live in!
Think about this just for one second - If you watch the news - they will tell you auto sales are down and retail sales are down - Well they are correct - but over 150 million Americans are stuck in their houses because of the worst winter I have ever been in - and I'm in North Carolina! The people up north are experiencing what is called "CABIN FEVER"!!!!
When this weather breaks these people will be out buying cars, going to restaurants, and spending money!!!!
I'm not a weather man - but when it starts to get warmer this economy will fly!!!!!
Now here is the problem I have now!!!!
I have achieved my short term target to the upside - NOW WHAT YOU ASK - WHERE ARE WE GOING FROM HERE?
I'll be honest - I'M NOT SURE!!!!!!!!!
We could go two ways!
Either the DOW makes a new high over 16,576.66 or the DOW retreats back down to the 50 week support point of 15,388.53!
THIS IS THE TIME YOU NEED A MANAGED FUTURES ACCOUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I HAVE JUST THE MAN TO CONTACT - FULL DISCLOSURE - I MAKE NOTHING ON THIS MAN OR HIS FIRM - I'LL GIVE YOU HIS NAME AT THE END OF MY BLOG!!!!
Now let's review this week's action!
DOW - closed @ 16,154.39 - up 360.31 or up 2.28%
Now lets look at my wife and my son's holdings!
DIS - closed @ $79.23 - up $3.56 or up 4.70%
SD - closed @ $6.41 - up 0.27 cents or up 4.40%
MU - closed @ $25.08 - up 0.57 cents or up 2.33%
NKE - closed @ $75.07 - up $2.38 or up 3.27%
JCI - closed @ $49.00 - up $2.33 or up 4.97%
RIG - closed @ $43.13 - up 0.80 cents or up 1.89%
AIG - closed @ $48.98 - down 0.03 cents or down 0.06%
Here's is my rant on this stock!!!!!!!!
AIG reported great earning - increased their dividend - cut expenses - and increased their buy back program by 1 BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!
The stock got hammered - THIS IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN THIS STOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's net asset value is $60 a share!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So I bought more @ $48.66!
CHK - closed @ $25.14 - up 0.55 cents or up 2.24%
this stock is another steal!!!!!!!!!
I BOUGHT MORE @ $24.19!
FDML - closed @ $16.91 - up 0.22 cents or up 1.32%
I BOUGHT MORE @ $16.84!!!
NOW LET ME INTRODUCE YOU TO MY MANAGED FUTURES EXPERT!!!
We live in an investment world where investors are forced to take risks, no matter what investment , in order to get a return. With interest rates so low and the budget
deficit so high there is even a substantial risk in U.S. treasury securities which was once the safest investment there is. The potential loss in the 30 year bond if rates
rise 1 % to 3 % is 22 % to 41 %. Look at the potential risks in stocks. The market is up around 165 % since the March 2009 low which is 4 times more than the average
rate of 7 % per year or 32 % over the last 4 1/2 years. A reversion to the mean is where the market goes back to its historical average. Reverting to the mean would
bring the Dow back down to near its 2008 lows. In my opinion it is imperative that stock and bond investors need to look at alternative investments like managed futures
that have the potential for strong performance in both up and down markets, exhibiting low correlation to traditional asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, cash and real
estate. Managed futures may generate returns in bull and bear markets, boasting solid long term track records despite economic downturns. Please contact my managed
futures specialist at Foremost Trading to at least diversify a portion of your overall investment portfolio. Steve Hansen can be reached at 888-818-0880 ext 536 or
312-399-0696 e-mail shansen@foremosttrading.com
Well - next week should be interesting - STAY TUNED!!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
On blog # 33 on Feb. 5th - I stated we would have a 700 point rally in the DOW in a very short period of time!! At that time the DOW closed @ 15,440.23 - for a 700 point rally the DOW would have to go to 16,140!! Well guess what it closed today @ 16,154.39!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The flack I received after I posted on Feb. 5th was unbelievable - "Your a moron" - "You don't have a clue what is happening" - "This market is going to collapse" and on and on and on!
Look people I am here for you to make money. Don't listen to the noise on TV! My job is to give you the straight story so you can succeed in the crazy world we live in!
Think about this just for one second - If you watch the news - they will tell you auto sales are down and retail sales are down - Well they are correct - but over 150 million Americans are stuck in their houses because of the worst winter I have ever been in - and I'm in North Carolina! The people up north are experiencing what is called "CABIN FEVER"!!!!
When this weather breaks these people will be out buying cars, going to restaurants, and spending money!!!!
I'm not a weather man - but when it starts to get warmer this economy will fly!!!!!
Now here is the problem I have now!!!!
I have achieved my short term target to the upside - NOW WHAT YOU ASK - WHERE ARE WE GOING FROM HERE?
I'll be honest - I'M NOT SURE!!!!!!!!!
We could go two ways!
Either the DOW makes a new high over 16,576.66 or the DOW retreats back down to the 50 week support point of 15,388.53!
THIS IS THE TIME YOU NEED A MANAGED FUTURES ACCOUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I HAVE JUST THE MAN TO CONTACT - FULL DISCLOSURE - I MAKE NOTHING ON THIS MAN OR HIS FIRM - I'LL GIVE YOU HIS NAME AT THE END OF MY BLOG!!!!
Now let's review this week's action!
DOW - closed @ 16,154.39 - up 360.31 or up 2.28%
Now lets look at my wife and my son's holdings!
DIS - closed @ $79.23 - up $3.56 or up 4.70%
SD - closed @ $6.41 - up 0.27 cents or up 4.40%
MU - closed @ $25.08 - up 0.57 cents or up 2.33%
NKE - closed @ $75.07 - up $2.38 or up 3.27%
JCI - closed @ $49.00 - up $2.33 or up 4.97%
RIG - closed @ $43.13 - up 0.80 cents or up 1.89%
AIG - closed @ $48.98 - down 0.03 cents or down 0.06%
Here's is my rant on this stock!!!!!!!!
AIG reported great earning - increased their dividend - cut expenses - and increased their buy back program by 1 BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!
The stock got hammered - THIS IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN THIS STOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's net asset value is $60 a share!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So I bought more @ $48.66!
CHK - closed @ $25.14 - up 0.55 cents or up 2.24%
this stock is another steal!!!!!!!!!
I BOUGHT MORE @ $24.19!
FDML - closed @ $16.91 - up 0.22 cents or up 1.32%
I BOUGHT MORE @ $16.84!!!
NOW LET ME INTRODUCE YOU TO MY MANAGED FUTURES EXPERT!!!
We live in an investment world where investors are forced to take risks, no matter what investment , in order to get a return. With interest rates so low and the budget
deficit so high there is even a substantial risk in U.S. treasury securities which was once the safest investment there is. The potential loss in the 30 year bond if rates
rise 1 % to 3 % is 22 % to 41 %. Look at the potential risks in stocks. The market is up around 165 % since the March 2009 low which is 4 times more than the average
rate of 7 % per year or 32 % over the last 4 1/2 years. A reversion to the mean is where the market goes back to its historical average. Reverting to the mean would
bring the Dow back down to near its 2008 lows. In my opinion it is imperative that stock and bond investors need to look at alternative investments like managed futures
that have the potential for strong performance in both up and down markets, exhibiting low correlation to traditional asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, cash and real
estate. Managed futures may generate returns in bull and bear markets, boasting solid long term track records despite economic downturns. Please contact my managed
futures specialist at Foremost Trading to at least diversify a portion of your overall investment portfolio. Steve Hansen can be reached at 888-818-0880 ext 536 or
312-399-0696 e-mail shansen@foremosttrading.com
Well - next week should be interesting - STAY TUNED!!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Friday, February 7, 2014
"HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM"
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 34
So in 2014 - 18.6 Billion dollars - that's the outflows out of emerging markets and ETF'S that are in emerging markets so far this year!!!! Where did that money go? First it went into safe havens - like the US treasury markets!!! In my last blog #33 I told you that the US market - The DOW was poised for a 700 point rally - in a very short period of time!!!
Well - two trading days later the DOW is up 353.85 points!!!!!!
Now looking at my charts, the next resistance on the DOW is 16,101.35!!!! Please keep that number in mind!!! Why? Because that will either be the top of this rally or if penetrates that number on two closings, this market will test the high of 16,576.66 in the DOW made on Dec. 31st, 2013!!!!! That's why "HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We will get to 16,101.34 in the DOW shortly!!! When we get there stay tuned!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at this week's stats!!
The Dow closed at 15,794.08 - up 95.23 or up 0.61% But it is still down around 4and1/2 % for 2014!
Now let's look at my wife's and my son's holdings.
DIS - closed at $75.67 - up $3.06 for the week or up 4.21% - this is one one of their largest positions!
MU - closed at $24.51 - up $1.47 for the week or up 6.38% - this is their second largest positions!
NKE - closed at $72.69 - down 0.16 cents for the week or down 0.22% - this is their third largest position!
AIG - closed at $49.01 - up $1.05 for the week or up 2.19% - this is their 4th largest position!
JCI - closed at $46.67 - up 0.55 cents for the week or up 1.19% - this is their 5th largest position!
SD - closed at $6.14 - down .01 cents for the week or down 0.16% - this is their 6th largest position!
RIG - closed at $42.33 - down .95 cents for the week or down 2.20% - this is their 7th largest position!
If this stock goes down any further - It could be a take over target!
CHK - closed at $24.59 - down $2.32 for the week or down 8.02% - They have a very small position in this stock! I bought more today at $ 24.19 bringing their average to $25.5311!!!
FDML - closed at $16.69 down $1.19 for the week or down 6.66% - they have a ver small position in this stock - however, I missed buying more today by .10 cents!!!
My Wife and my Son are only down around 1 % this year !!! - But not for long!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
So in 2014 - 18.6 Billion dollars - that's the outflows out of emerging markets and ETF'S that are in emerging markets so far this year!!!! Where did that money go? First it went into safe havens - like the US treasury markets!!! In my last blog #33 I told you that the US market - The DOW was poised for a 700 point rally - in a very short period of time!!!
Well - two trading days later the DOW is up 353.85 points!!!!!!
Now looking at my charts, the next resistance on the DOW is 16,101.35!!!! Please keep that number in mind!!! Why? Because that will either be the top of this rally or if penetrates that number on two closings, this market will test the high of 16,576.66 in the DOW made on Dec. 31st, 2013!!!!! That's why "HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We will get to 16,101.34 in the DOW shortly!!! When we get there stay tuned!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at this week's stats!!
The Dow closed at 15,794.08 - up 95.23 or up 0.61% But it is still down around 4and1/2 % for 2014!
Now let's look at my wife's and my son's holdings.
DIS - closed at $75.67 - up $3.06 for the week or up 4.21% - this is one one of their largest positions!
MU - closed at $24.51 - up $1.47 for the week or up 6.38% - this is their second largest positions!
NKE - closed at $72.69 - down 0.16 cents for the week or down 0.22% - this is their third largest position!
AIG - closed at $49.01 - up $1.05 for the week or up 2.19% - this is their 4th largest position!
JCI - closed at $46.67 - up 0.55 cents for the week or up 1.19% - this is their 5th largest position!
SD - closed at $6.14 - down .01 cents for the week or down 0.16% - this is their 6th largest position!
RIG - closed at $42.33 - down .95 cents for the week or down 2.20% - this is their 7th largest position!
If this stock goes down any further - It could be a take over target!
CHK - closed at $24.59 - down $2.32 for the week or down 8.02% - They have a very small position in this stock! I bought more today at $ 24.19 bringing their average to $25.5311!!!
FDML - closed at $16.69 down $1.19 for the week or down 6.66% - they have a ver small position in this stock - however, I missed buying more today by .10 cents!!!
My Wife and my Son are only down around 1 % this year !!! - But not for long!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
WE ARE AT THE POINT OF 700 POINT BOUNCE ON THE DOW TO THE UPSIDE!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 33
I must apologize for the wrong VOL. #'s on the last 2 Blogs - I marked them as Vol. 21 & Vol. 22 - when they should have been Vol. 31 and Vol. 32. I was so anxious to get out my message to you all - that I was not paying attention to the correct numbers!
Well, the DOW has fallen around 6% so far in 2014! We have to realize how fast money can move out of hot sectors - like the emerging markets - in a matter of days - causing markets to change in a hurry!!!
This downdraft in the US markets is now OVER DONE!!!!!
You have traders getting out of US stocks that have made them a lot of money last year! That means there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines!! - And you have a lot of speculators going short stocks - this makes for the perfect storm FOR A 700 POINT RALLY IN THE DOW - IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME!!!
I can see the 10 year bond yield spike back to at least 2.80% in a short period of time.
Remember it was over 3% not that long ago!!! - Then the yield sank to around 2.6% - during this DOW sell-off!!
Please don't get me wrong - NO ONE CAN PREDICT A BOTTOM OR A TOP - NO ONE!!!!
But WE ARE CLOSER TO A BOTTOM for the near future!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
NOW - LET'S LOOK AT SOME STOCKS MY WIFE AND SON OWN - THAT ARE WAY OVERSOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JCI
AIG - Net asset value is $60 a share and is trading under $46
RIG - Is way oversold - It's Relative Strength Index is 20.41 on a daily basis!!!!!!
FDML
CHK
All of these stocks are trading at bargain prices!!!!
I am added to these stocks as we speak!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Stay tuned!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
I must apologize for the wrong VOL. #'s on the last 2 Blogs - I marked them as Vol. 21 & Vol. 22 - when they should have been Vol. 31 and Vol. 32. I was so anxious to get out my message to you all - that I was not paying attention to the correct numbers!
Well, the DOW has fallen around 6% so far in 2014! We have to realize how fast money can move out of hot sectors - like the emerging markets - in a matter of days - causing markets to change in a hurry!!!
This downdraft in the US markets is now OVER DONE!!!!!
You have traders getting out of US stocks that have made them a lot of money last year! That means there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines!! - And you have a lot of speculators going short stocks - this makes for the perfect storm FOR A 700 POINT RALLY IN THE DOW - IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME!!!
I can see the 10 year bond yield spike back to at least 2.80% in a short period of time.
Remember it was over 3% not that long ago!!! - Then the yield sank to around 2.6% - during this DOW sell-off!!
Please don't get me wrong - NO ONE CAN PREDICT A BOTTOM OR A TOP - NO ONE!!!!
But WE ARE CLOSER TO A BOTTOM for the near future!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
NOW - LET'S LOOK AT SOME STOCKS MY WIFE AND SON OWN - THAT ARE WAY OVERSOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JCI
AIG - Net asset value is $60 a share and is trading under $46
RIG - Is way oversold - It's Relative Strength Index is 20.41 on a daily basis!!!!!!
FDML
CHK
All of these stocks are trading at bargain prices!!!!
I am added to these stocks as we speak!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Stay tuned!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Sunday, February 2, 2014
"WHAT DO WE KNOW _ WHERE ARE WE GOING?"
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 22
Let's try to figure this market out together! Let's examine what we know.
1) This winter has affected over 150 million Americans for a long time now!!!!
2) Ask yourself - "do people go out in this weather to spend money?" - In restaurants, or on home improvement items or on gasoline for long trips? - the answer is NO!!!!! The only things people go out in this weather is to buy food!!!!
3) That's why the retail stocks had lousy earnings!! Their biggest month in sales is in December!! December weather was atrocious to say the least!!!!
4) Traders at the beginning of January started taking profits in stocks they made money in - in 2013 Why?
so they do not have to pay tax on those profits till April 2015!!!
5) Investors poured in BILLIONS OF DOLLARS into emerging market funds in during the 4th quarter of 2013 - BIG MISTAKE - As far as I'm concerned there is only one place to put your money to work - And that is in the greatest country GOD ever created - The good old USA!!!!
6) Emerging markets did nothing to prepare themselves from our FED tapering!!! They were warned months in advance of the start of taper and did nothing to prepare for the event!!!!
7) Starting in January investors became worried about emerging markets and the European economies with markets in Asia and Europe seeing significant losses and there are other troubled economies like Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia according to analyst Dick Bove.
8) Jan. 30th ( Reuters) article by Sam Forgione and Jennifer Alban - "Investors in funds based in the US pulled $2.6 BILLION from emerging market stock funds in the week ended Jan. 29th 2014"!!!!!!!!!
9) Can you imagine how many foreign investors pulled out of emerging market funds!!!!!
10) We still have a lot of earnings to report between now and till the end of Feb.!!!!!
11) We know most of the retail stocks have reported lousy earnings and I believe it is weather related!!!!
12) There have been many companies reporting great earnings and their stock prices have been slammed - which presents great buying opportunities!!!
13) Bond prices have rallied - yields have fallen dramatically!!!!! WHY? You would think with the FED tapering rates would rise!!! I have a theory - With all the BILLIONS OF DOLLARS flowing out of emerging markets - that MONEY went into US Bonds!!! Creating a flattening of the yield curve - so what you say - well I tell you so what - our bank stocks which have led our stock market rally - started to fall in price! Why is that? Investors believe that when the yield curve flatten - their earning will diminish!!!! That dragged the rest of the market down!!!!
14) What's the answer? Make a list of stocks you feel will be much higher than where they are trading at today in the next year!!! DO NOT BUY THEM ALL AT ONE PRICE - USE SCALE DOWN ORDERS!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at the DOW
The DOW closed at 15,698.85 - For the week the DOW was down 180.26 or down 1.14%
On a weekly chart - the DOW shows support at the 50 week moving average which comes in at 15,311.21!!!
This is where I believe we will get a tremendous bounce !
Now let's look at what I own for my wife and my son.
DIS - Closed for the week at $72.61 or down .11 cents or down 0.15% for the week.
Remember I sold cover calls 03/22/2014 $77.50 calls at $2.40 or $240 a call - remember every call controls 100 shares of stock!
AIG - Closed for the week at $47.96 or up .10 cents or up .26% for the week.
Remember the reason I bought this stock was that BILLIONAIRE Lee Cooperman owns 5,806,600 shares - follow the money!!!
SD - Closed for the week at $6.15 or down .15 cents or down 2.38% for the week.
Remember why I bought this stock - Again Lee Cooperman owns 34,256,163 shares - again follow the money!!!!
MU - Closed for the week at $23.04 or up .12 cents or up .52% for the week.
Remember why I bought this stock - Another BILLIONAIRE David Einhorn - this is one of his favorite stocks for 2014!!!
JCI - Closed for the week at $46.12 or down $2.09 or down 4.34%
Reported great earnings and even better guidance - yet the stock got slammed. I'm looking to buy more at $43.56!!! This is a stock that could potentially spin off some of its parts - creating more shareholder wealth!
RIG - Closed for the week at $ 43.28 or down .97 cents or down 2.19% for the week.
Carl Icahn owns 21,477,900 shares!!! This stock yields 4.60% - If the stock price falls the yield will get even bigger!! I am looking to buy more at $ 42.66!
NKE - Closed for the week at $ 72.85 or up $1.20 or up 1.67% for the week.
NOW FOR 2 STOCKS I STARTED TO NIBBLE AT THIS WEEK !!!!!!
CHK - I bought a little at $27.01 - looking to buy more on a scale down basis - I'll let you know know when I buy more and at what price.
Carl Icahn owns 66,450,000 shares!!!
FDML - I bought a little at $ 18.01 - looking to buy more on a scale down basis - Again I'll let you know when I buy more and at what price.
Carl Icahn owns 121,111,976 shares!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Have a great trading week!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Let's try to figure this market out together! Let's examine what we know.
1) This winter has affected over 150 million Americans for a long time now!!!!
2) Ask yourself - "do people go out in this weather to spend money?" - In restaurants, or on home improvement items or on gasoline for long trips? - the answer is NO!!!!! The only things people go out in this weather is to buy food!!!!
3) That's why the retail stocks had lousy earnings!! Their biggest month in sales is in December!! December weather was atrocious to say the least!!!!
4) Traders at the beginning of January started taking profits in stocks they made money in - in 2013 Why?
so they do not have to pay tax on those profits till April 2015!!!
5) Investors poured in BILLIONS OF DOLLARS into emerging market funds in during the 4th quarter of 2013 - BIG MISTAKE - As far as I'm concerned there is only one place to put your money to work - And that is in the greatest country GOD ever created - The good old USA!!!!
6) Emerging markets did nothing to prepare themselves from our FED tapering!!! They were warned months in advance of the start of taper and did nothing to prepare for the event!!!!
7) Starting in January investors became worried about emerging markets and the European economies with markets in Asia and Europe seeing significant losses and there are other troubled economies like Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia according to analyst Dick Bove.
8) Jan. 30th ( Reuters) article by Sam Forgione and Jennifer Alban - "Investors in funds based in the US pulled $2.6 BILLION from emerging market stock funds in the week ended Jan. 29th 2014"!!!!!!!!!
9) Can you imagine how many foreign investors pulled out of emerging market funds!!!!!
10) We still have a lot of earnings to report between now and till the end of Feb.!!!!!
11) We know most of the retail stocks have reported lousy earnings and I believe it is weather related!!!!
12) There have been many companies reporting great earnings and their stock prices have been slammed - which presents great buying opportunities!!!
13) Bond prices have rallied - yields have fallen dramatically!!!!! WHY? You would think with the FED tapering rates would rise!!! I have a theory - With all the BILLIONS OF DOLLARS flowing out of emerging markets - that MONEY went into US Bonds!!! Creating a flattening of the yield curve - so what you say - well I tell you so what - our bank stocks which have led our stock market rally - started to fall in price! Why is that? Investors believe that when the yield curve flatten - their earning will diminish!!!! That dragged the rest of the market down!!!!
14) What's the answer? Make a list of stocks you feel will be much higher than where they are trading at today in the next year!!! DO NOT BUY THEM ALL AT ONE PRICE - USE SCALE DOWN ORDERS!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Let's look at the DOW
The DOW closed at 15,698.85 - For the week the DOW was down 180.26 or down 1.14%
On a weekly chart - the DOW shows support at the 50 week moving average which comes in at 15,311.21!!!
This is where I believe we will get a tremendous bounce !
Now let's look at what I own for my wife and my son.
DIS - Closed for the week at $72.61 or down .11 cents or down 0.15% for the week.
Remember I sold cover calls 03/22/2014 $77.50 calls at $2.40 or $240 a call - remember every call controls 100 shares of stock!
AIG - Closed for the week at $47.96 or up .10 cents or up .26% for the week.
Remember the reason I bought this stock was that BILLIONAIRE Lee Cooperman owns 5,806,600 shares - follow the money!!!
SD - Closed for the week at $6.15 or down .15 cents or down 2.38% for the week.
Remember why I bought this stock - Again Lee Cooperman owns 34,256,163 shares - again follow the money!!!!
MU - Closed for the week at $23.04 or up .12 cents or up .52% for the week.
Remember why I bought this stock - Another BILLIONAIRE David Einhorn - this is one of his favorite stocks for 2014!!!
JCI - Closed for the week at $46.12 or down $2.09 or down 4.34%
Reported great earnings and even better guidance - yet the stock got slammed. I'm looking to buy more at $43.56!!! This is a stock that could potentially spin off some of its parts - creating more shareholder wealth!
RIG - Closed for the week at $ 43.28 or down .97 cents or down 2.19% for the week.
Carl Icahn owns 21,477,900 shares!!! This stock yields 4.60% - If the stock price falls the yield will get even bigger!! I am looking to buy more at $ 42.66!
NKE - Closed for the week at $ 72.85 or up $1.20 or up 1.67% for the week.
NOW FOR 2 STOCKS I STARTED TO NIBBLE AT THIS WEEK !!!!!!
CHK - I bought a little at $27.01 - looking to buy more on a scale down basis - I'll let you know know when I buy more and at what price.
Carl Icahn owns 66,450,000 shares!!!
FDML - I bought a little at $ 18.01 - looking to buy more on a scale down basis - Again I'll let you know when I buy more and at what price.
Carl Icahn owns 121,111,976 shares!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Have a great trading week!!!
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
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