"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 19
If you have 5 year, 10 year, 30 year bonds in your portfolio - good luck in 2014!!! Interest rates are going to creep higher throughout 2014 and into 2015. If bonds are in your portfolio - you will lose money!! The only place to put your money in 2014 is in the US stock market! Will the market have down days or down weeks in 2014? - yes. So what - stay the course! Can any of you viewers tell me where you could have made 26% to 32% for the year other than the US stock market? Let's look at a scenario I can envision in 2014 - interest rates start to creep up slowly and bond holders start losing money in their bond holdings - where do you think that money will go into? Answer the US stock market! Do you have any idea how many trillions of dollars are invested in bonds? Let's just say 10% comes out of bonds and into the stock market - we could have a repeat of 2013!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Bear with me for awhile - because I hear people coming on TV saying investors beware - it's 1929 all over again!! Really - These idiots have never investigated why the 1929 crash happened - it's easy to learn go on Google and investigate for yourself. Did you know that from 1927 up till 1929 favored stock investing customers only had to put up 10% and the rest would only put up 20% to buy stocks - maybe it's me - but that sounds very familiar - "you can buy a house with no money down and we will give you 125% of the value of the house you want to purchase" - REALLY! When the market in 1929 started to go down - margin calls forced the owners of stock to sell - no wonder the market crashed!! I find it interesting that Washington politicians never seem to learn from history - it's amazing to me that this country has survived despite Washington! It just shows you that the CEO's of the American companies are smarter than politicians!!
For the most part American companies are lean and mean, and are waiting for a go sign from Washington before they unleash what could be the greatest American expansion in our history!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Sorry for the rant! Now let's look at this weeks action.
DOW for the week up $257.27 or up 1.59%
My holdings
AIG for the week up 0.15 cents or up 0.29%
C for the week up 0.05 cents or up 0.10%
ABBV for the week down 0.04 cents or down 0.08%
ABT for the week up 0.53 cents or up 1.40%
DIS for the week up $1.95 or up 2.69%
NKE for the week up 0.82 cents or up 1.06%
JCI which I want to buy on a scale down basis starting @ $50.23 down to $48.95 never got there this week- the low was $50.51.
SD which I want to buy on a scale down basis starting @ $5.75 down to $5.51 never got there this week - the low was $5.82
Stocks I sold last Friday because I do not believe their price will appreciate very much in 2014 - even though they do have good dividends - but here is the problem - when interest rates start to go up - those dividends will not look as appealing!
Those stocks were
T, MO, BIP, CLMT, MFA.
For people that have over one million dollars in their portfolio - check in on my blog on Tuesday December 31st - I will show you how you should invest at least 10% in a managed commodity fund - tune in!
Also, I will have 5 stocks for 2014 - tune in!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You;
Len Dwelle
If you have questions e-mail me.
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Friday, December 27, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
SANTA CLAUSE HAS JUST VISITED YOUR PORTFOLIO!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" VOL. - 18
The DOW for the week was up $465.78 or up 2.96%!!!! Closed at 16,221.14!!!! I did not think the FED would taper - but tapering $10 Billion a month is a drop in the bucket!!! - However, I loved their outlook on the American economy! Let's face it, the FED sees economic numbers long before we do! I have to say they got it right! So let's try to figure out why the market exploded to the upside after the FED announcement. It wasn't the small taper number but I believe it was a combination of the taper and their economic forecast that made the DOW rise almost 300 points after the announcement! We all have to realize one important fact about the great minds this country has -out of our 300 million population! Let's be honest here, population wise this country is small compared to the rest of the world! So why does this great country of ours - The great USA, the greatest country GOD ever created, have people that create ideas that become products, that everyone on the planet has to have? It's called FREEDOM! Freedom to think, freedom to imagine, freedom to execute ideas into real products! This market has a long way to go to the upside!!!!!!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I was watching Bloomberg and they showed a segment where Blackrock was buying 1,500 foreclosed houses in the Atlanta area - they mentioned 2 other companies going into Florida and California buying thousands of foreclosed homes - hiring people to clean them up so they can rent them out - It's not only a new business but think about this- it's just a matter of time existing homes will be in very short supply - good news for existing home owners, because their homes will start to appreciate in price for years to come!
Now lets look at the stocks I own for my wife and my son, who are about the same age (that's another story) and are about 20 years away from retirement.
AIG - which I bought @ $48.12 - it has a book value of $67 a share and is trading at 75% of it's book value - most insurance companies are trading between 90% to 110% of their book value - Look for a big increase in it's dividend payout, coming soon!
AIG - for the week up $1.30 or up 2.61%
C - which I bought @ $51.03 - for the week was up $1.24 or up 2.43%
ABBV - which they acquired on the ABT stock spinoff over 14 months ago was up 0.22 cents or up 0.42%
for the week.
ABT - for the week up $1.44 or up 3.96%
DIS - for the week up $2.78 or up 3.99%
NKE - for the week up 0.94 cents or up 1.23%
Now both my wife and my son's account is up 31.237% for the year.
However, I've been thinking about what to invest in- in 2014 and to rearrange their portfolio's!
This is what I did on the close today.
I sold T, MO, BIP, CLMT, MFA, Why you ask? I see no future for these stocks in 2014 - Don't get wrong they have great dividends, but I believe there are stocks out there that need to be look at for large capital gains in 2014!
The stocks I'm looking to buy are
JCI - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link - they are citing possible spin-offs of all or part of it's automotive business, which should release value at it's current price. I'm a buyer on a scale down starting @$50.23 down to $48.95.
SD - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Lee Cooperman, who thinks this stock is a double in 2014!
I'm a buyer starting at $5.75 on a scale down basis down to $5.51.
I have more stocks for 2014 - You'll have to wait till next time!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
e-mail
lendwelle@hotmail.com
The DOW for the week was up $465.78 or up 2.96%!!!! Closed at 16,221.14!!!! I did not think the FED would taper - but tapering $10 Billion a month is a drop in the bucket!!! - However, I loved their outlook on the American economy! Let's face it, the FED sees economic numbers long before we do! I have to say they got it right! So let's try to figure out why the market exploded to the upside after the FED announcement. It wasn't the small taper number but I believe it was a combination of the taper and their economic forecast that made the DOW rise almost 300 points after the announcement! We all have to realize one important fact about the great minds this country has -out of our 300 million population! Let's be honest here, population wise this country is small compared to the rest of the world! So why does this great country of ours - The great USA, the greatest country GOD ever created, have people that create ideas that become products, that everyone on the planet has to have? It's called FREEDOM! Freedom to think, freedom to imagine, freedom to execute ideas into real products! This market has a long way to go to the upside!!!!!!!!!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
I was watching Bloomberg and they showed a segment where Blackrock was buying 1,500 foreclosed houses in the Atlanta area - they mentioned 2 other companies going into Florida and California buying thousands of foreclosed homes - hiring people to clean them up so they can rent them out - It's not only a new business but think about this- it's just a matter of time existing homes will be in very short supply - good news for existing home owners, because their homes will start to appreciate in price for years to come!
Now lets look at the stocks I own for my wife and my son, who are about the same age (that's another story) and are about 20 years away from retirement.
AIG - which I bought @ $48.12 - it has a book value of $67 a share and is trading at 75% of it's book value - most insurance companies are trading between 90% to 110% of their book value - Look for a big increase in it's dividend payout, coming soon!
AIG - for the week up $1.30 or up 2.61%
C - which I bought @ $51.03 - for the week was up $1.24 or up 2.43%
ABBV - which they acquired on the ABT stock spinoff over 14 months ago was up 0.22 cents or up 0.42%
for the week.
ABT - for the week up $1.44 or up 3.96%
DIS - for the week up $2.78 or up 3.99%
NKE - for the week up 0.94 cents or up 1.23%
Now both my wife and my son's account is up 31.237% for the year.
However, I've been thinking about what to invest in- in 2014 and to rearrange their portfolio's!
This is what I did on the close today.
I sold T, MO, BIP, CLMT, MFA, Why you ask? I see no future for these stocks in 2014 - Don't get wrong they have great dividends, but I believe there are stocks out there that need to be look at for large capital gains in 2014!
The stocks I'm looking to buy are
JCI - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link - they are citing possible spin-offs of all or part of it's automotive business, which should release value at it's current price. I'm a buyer on a scale down starting @$50.23 down to $48.95.
SD - Why? I have to admit I got this idea from Lee Cooperman, who thinks this stock is a double in 2014!
I'm a buyer starting at $5.75 on a scale down basis down to $5.51.
I have more stocks for 2014 - You'll have to wait till next time!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
lendwelle@hotmail.com
Saturday, December 14, 2013
LAST WEEK THE DOW WAS UP 198.69 - THIS WEEK DOWN 264.84
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. - 18
Let's see if we can figure this market out and more importantly let's make an educated prediction of the markets next direction. So what happened this week? More talk of taper from the FED in next week's meeting. Remember taper is no where close to FED tightening! The economic numbers that came out last week were a mixed bag - some good - some were just alright - the unemployment numbers I thought were very disappointing! That last number in my opinion is the number that will prevent the FED next week from tapering I still believe that the taper will not begin until March, when Janet Yellen takes the helm as the New FED Chairman (Chairwoman). I believe it would be a tremendous mistake if the FED tapers next week - I do not see enough growth in the U.S. at this point of a very slow recovery to warrant a taper. I think we need to see more improvement in the U.S. economic numbers for at least one more quarter for it to make sense!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
So why was the market down for the week? It was not only the FED tapering fear -Iran pulls out of talks with the six world powers to protest the expansion of U.S. sanctions. More importantly the money managers of funds that have made 28 to 31% so far this year we're taking money off the table leaving them with a lot of cash on hand to reinvest in the market if the FED does nothing this week.
That is why I am still bullish on this market up to year end and also all of January 2014. Here is my reasoning - look at all the companies that are announcing dividend increases. ABT for example increased their dividend 57%! GE increased their dividend 16%. You will see more and more companies increasing their dividends. Let's look at some stocks and how they performed this week.
MU - up 0.77 cents or up 3.45% for the week.
YHOO - up 0.87 cents or up 2.24% for the week.
ABBV - up $1.02 or up 1.99% for the week.
AIG - up 0.18 cents or up 0.36% for the week.
Now let's look at some losers for the week.
T - down .32 cents or down 0.94% for the week
MO - down .36 cents or down 0.96% for the week.
C - down .52 cents or down 1.01% for the week.
BIP - down .43 cents or down 1.14% for the week.
DIS - down .97 cents or down 1.37% for the week.
ABT - down $1.13 or down 3.01% for the week but remember they increased their dividend 57%.
CLMT - down $1.00 or down 3.75% for the week. This stock on a weekly chart is way oversold!
NKE - down $3.21 or down 4.03% for the week. Remember they have earnings on Thursday.
MFA - down .04 cents or down 0.56% for the week. This stock on a weekly basis is way oversold!
The stock that got killed was,
LULU - down $10.64 or down 15.23%.
Some things to look for,
Sprint is mulling to bid for T-Mobile.
Is it possible that in the future bank stocks will spin-off some of their parts?
I saw the following article that may make that happen!
U.S. authorities agree this week on a final draft of the Volcker Rule, named after former FED chairman Paul Volcker, which seeks to ensure banks cannot make speculative trades that are so large and risky that they threaten individual firms or the wider financial system.
Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) which guarantees deposits at U.S. banks, said if the new rule is successful it could add momentum to his push to split up large banks! I'm a big fan of company spinoffs - they usually become huge winners for investors!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
Let's see if we can figure this market out and more importantly let's make an educated prediction of the markets next direction. So what happened this week? More talk of taper from the FED in next week's meeting. Remember taper is no where close to FED tightening! The economic numbers that came out last week were a mixed bag - some good - some were just alright - the unemployment numbers I thought were very disappointing! That last number in my opinion is the number that will prevent the FED next week from tapering I still believe that the taper will not begin until March, when Janet Yellen takes the helm as the New FED Chairman (Chairwoman). I believe it would be a tremendous mistake if the FED tapers next week - I do not see enough growth in the U.S. at this point of a very slow recovery to warrant a taper. I think we need to see more improvement in the U.S. economic numbers for at least one more quarter for it to make sense!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
So why was the market down for the week? It was not only the FED tapering fear -Iran pulls out of talks with the six world powers to protest the expansion of U.S. sanctions. More importantly the money managers of funds that have made 28 to 31% so far this year we're taking money off the table leaving them with a lot of cash on hand to reinvest in the market if the FED does nothing this week.
That is why I am still bullish on this market up to year end and also all of January 2014. Here is my reasoning - look at all the companies that are announcing dividend increases. ABT for example increased their dividend 57%! GE increased their dividend 16%. You will see more and more companies increasing their dividends. Let's look at some stocks and how they performed this week.
MU - up 0.77 cents or up 3.45% for the week.
YHOO - up 0.87 cents or up 2.24% for the week.
ABBV - up $1.02 or up 1.99% for the week.
AIG - up 0.18 cents or up 0.36% for the week.
Now let's look at some losers for the week.
T - down .32 cents or down 0.94% for the week
MO - down .36 cents or down 0.96% for the week.
C - down .52 cents or down 1.01% for the week.
BIP - down .43 cents or down 1.14% for the week.
DIS - down .97 cents or down 1.37% for the week.
ABT - down $1.13 or down 3.01% for the week but remember they increased their dividend 57%.
CLMT - down $1.00 or down 3.75% for the week. This stock on a weekly chart is way oversold!
NKE - down $3.21 or down 4.03% for the week. Remember they have earnings on Thursday.
MFA - down .04 cents or down 0.56% for the week. This stock on a weekly basis is way oversold!
The stock that got killed was,
LULU - down $10.64 or down 15.23%.
Some things to look for,
Sprint is mulling to bid for T-Mobile.
Is it possible that in the future bank stocks will spin-off some of their parts?
I saw the following article that may make that happen!
U.S. authorities agree this week on a final draft of the Volcker Rule, named after former FED chairman Paul Volcker, which seeks to ensure banks cannot make speculative trades that are so large and risky that they threaten individual firms or the wider financial system.
Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) which guarantees deposits at U.S. banks, said if the new rule is successful it could add momentum to his push to split up large banks! I'm a big fan of company spinoffs - they usually become huge winners for investors!
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Thank You,
Len Dwelle
Friday, December 6, 2013
TAPER - OH NO - OH YES SO WHY IS THE DOW UP 198.69?
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION" - VOL. 17
Taper, Taper, Taper - get it through your heads viewers - Tapering does not mean tightening!!!
Let mean repeat that fact - tapering does not mean tightening!!!!!!
This is very important - why - I'll tell you why. The FED is not as such a government agency - they are independent of all the chaos in Washington! We had a great jobs report today - did any body consider the job hiring for the Christmas holidays? Do you think that may have skewed the numbers?
The FED is not stupid - they will not move on just one number - they will wait until the employment numbers come out in January and February of 2014! Also, like I said in my last blog, they are waiting to see what Washington will come to an agreement on our economic future! What are the odds of that? That's why no taper till March of 2014! Besides that is the same time Janet Yellen takes over as the FED chairwomen! Remember taper does not in anyway mean FED tightening!
For all you people that do not remember past interest rates - I bought my first house in 1972 with 20% down and a 30 year fixed rate of 7and1/2% rate - rates today are chump change - 4 years after I bought my house rates went to 16%!!!!!
So I laugh when everybody gets nervous when the 10 year interest rate is now 2.8%!!! Who cares - its cheap money!!!
So what does Washington need to do to get this country moving to unprecedented prosperity?
Easy - lower corporate tax rates, since the US has the highest corporate tax rates in the world, so we can compete with exports - so the US is not at a disadvantage exporting our products to the world!
However, Washington is too stupid to do something smart!! Silly Me! How about passing legislation to start the Keystone pipeline, so the US could get energy independent and not have to import oil from people that hate our guts!!! Silly Me!
How about giving a tax credit to all truckers with 18 wheelers to change their polluting diesel engines to natural gas engines and creating millions of jobs putting natural gas pumps in all the gas stations in the US. Silly Me!
So why was the DOW up 198.69 today? I was not just the jobs report - it's a combination of events.
Let's start with stock buybacks and dividend increases.
JNJ raises it's dividend along with a buy back program.
Microsoft raises it's dividend by 22% and a $40 billion buy back program.
IBM raises it's dividend by 12% and adds a $5 billion buy back program.
AAPL to buy $100 billion buy back program and raise it's dividend.
This list will increase on a daily basis - and you wonder why I say the market is still going a lot higher!
Now, lets look at 2 stocks that are undergoing year end tax selling
CLMT & MFA - now that selling should soon.
Now lets look at the stocks on my watch list.
Yahoo - this week closed @ $38.86 up $1.88 or 5.08% for the week
MU - this week closed $22.31 up $1.21 or 5.73% for the week
ABBV- this week closed $51.35 up $2.90 or 5.99% for the week
LULU - this week closed $69.84 up .12cents or .17% for the week
Now lets look at some losers
C -this week closed $51.49 down $1.43 or 2,7% for the week - this stock is a great buy at these prices!
ABT - this week closed $37.53 down .66 cents or 1.73% for the week - this stock is a bargain in this area.
BIP - this week closed $37.29 down .65 cents or 1.70% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.
T - this week closed $34.53 down .68 cents or 1.93% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Len Dwelle-
Taper, Taper, Taper - get it through your heads viewers - Tapering does not mean tightening!!!
Let mean repeat that fact - tapering does not mean tightening!!!!!!
This is very important - why - I'll tell you why. The FED is not as such a government agency - they are independent of all the chaos in Washington! We had a great jobs report today - did any body consider the job hiring for the Christmas holidays? Do you think that may have skewed the numbers?
The FED is not stupid - they will not move on just one number - they will wait until the employment numbers come out in January and February of 2014! Also, like I said in my last blog, they are waiting to see what Washington will come to an agreement on our economic future! What are the odds of that? That's why no taper till March of 2014! Besides that is the same time Janet Yellen takes over as the FED chairwomen! Remember taper does not in anyway mean FED tightening!
For all you people that do not remember past interest rates - I bought my first house in 1972 with 20% down and a 30 year fixed rate of 7and1/2% rate - rates today are chump change - 4 years after I bought my house rates went to 16%!!!!!
So I laugh when everybody gets nervous when the 10 year interest rate is now 2.8%!!! Who cares - its cheap money!!!
So what does Washington need to do to get this country moving to unprecedented prosperity?
Easy - lower corporate tax rates, since the US has the highest corporate tax rates in the world, so we can compete with exports - so the US is not at a disadvantage exporting our products to the world!
However, Washington is too stupid to do something smart!! Silly Me! How about passing legislation to start the Keystone pipeline, so the US could get energy independent and not have to import oil from people that hate our guts!!! Silly Me!
How about giving a tax credit to all truckers with 18 wheelers to change their polluting diesel engines to natural gas engines and creating millions of jobs putting natural gas pumps in all the gas stations in the US. Silly Me!
So why was the DOW up 198.69 today? I was not just the jobs report - it's a combination of events.
Let's start with stock buybacks and dividend increases.
JNJ raises it's dividend along with a buy back program.
Microsoft raises it's dividend by 22% and a $40 billion buy back program.
IBM raises it's dividend by 12% and adds a $5 billion buy back program.
AAPL to buy $100 billion buy back program and raise it's dividend.
This list will increase on a daily basis - and you wonder why I say the market is still going a lot higher!
Now, lets look at 2 stocks that are undergoing year end tax selling
CLMT & MFA - now that selling should soon.
Now lets look at the stocks on my watch list.
Yahoo - this week closed @ $38.86 up $1.88 or 5.08% for the week
MU - this week closed $22.31 up $1.21 or 5.73% for the week
ABBV- this week closed $51.35 up $2.90 or 5.99% for the week
LULU - this week closed $69.84 up .12cents or .17% for the week
Now lets look at some losers
C -this week closed $51.49 down $1.43 or 2,7% for the week - this stock is a great buy at these prices!
ABT - this week closed $37.53 down .66 cents or 1.73% for the week - this stock is a bargain in this area.
BIP - this week closed $37.29 down .65 cents or 1.70% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.
T - this week closed $34.53 down .68 cents or 1.93% for the week - this stock is also a bargain in this price range.
"THAT'S JUST MY OPINION"
Len Dwelle-
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